Tuesday, April 9, 2013

Uganda: America gets it wrong ? Actually no.

The Observer ( Uganda ) reports

America sees war in Uganda in 2014

Henry Okello Oryem
Uganda’s relative calm will be shaken by violent instability in 2014; the US has projected in its latest National Intelligence report.
“Despite gains in peace and security in the past decade, the [Great Lakes] region endures the chronic pressures of weak governance, ethnic cleavages, and active rebel groups, the US Government-sponsored modelling suggests that Burundi, Congo (Kinshasa), and Uganda are all at risk of violent instability during the next year,” reads a report authored by Lt Gen James R Clapper, Director of National Intelligence, the United States.

I think that there needs to be some perspective brought to bare on the report the central African part is here.

That is it in its entirety. I see no prediction of war for Uganda and absolutely nothing I wouldn't expect to read on a world wide intelligence assessment, two paragraphs to dispose of 4 nations specifically and more if you include all the Great Lakes Region nations. Hell New Zealand and Australia don't even rate a mention yet the US is opening a military base in the Northern Territory of Australia. 

The report titled, ‘Worldwide Threat Assessment of the US Intelligence Community’ was presented to the Senate select committee on Intelligence on March 12, 2013. Uganda is listed in the category of the volatile Great Lakes region alongside Burundi and the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) and amongst countries which will be prone to conflict in future. But the minister of state for International Affairs, Henry Oryem Okello, hit back at the author of the report, saying he is naïve.

Actually I am starting to think it is Henry Okello who is naive. Did he even bother to read the document as it pertains to Uganda ?

“Unfortunately that report exposes America’s ignorance about the region. That is why President Museveni always says African problems need African solutions. How do they appreciate the security challenges while sitting in their Washington offices? You cannot compare Uganda to DRC,” Oryem said by telephone at the weekend.

What a load of bullshit. The report identifies certain risks and interestingly points the blame directly at Rwanda for the M23 situation. I have never really figured out the US position on Rwanda and I suspect that is one truth in the report that will not go down well.

Oryem said Uganda would remain stable for years to come because it has a well-revered army and intelligence services in the region. But while presenting the report to the Senate select committee on Intelligence, last month, Clapper said: “My statement reflects the collective insights of the intelligence community’s extraordinary men and women, whom it is my privilege and honour to lead.”

I agree that Uganda will remain stable if they stay on the road towards nationhood that they are following. Idiotic stunts like the killing of gays bill and the idiotic opposition to bills that promote equality such as the marriage bill will not substantively change that but they will count against Uganda long term in index's such as the Failed State Index mentioned below. As for Clappers statement to the Senate committee what the hell did you expect him to say ?

He argues that, “This year, in both content and organization, this statement illustrates how quickly and radically the world—and our threat environment—are changing. This environment is demanding re-evaluations of the way we do business, expanding our analytic envelope, and altering the vocabulary of intelligence.”
Clapper further argued: “The intelligence community is committed every day to providing the nuanced, multidisciplinary intelligence that policymakers, diplomats, war-fighters and international and domestic law enforcement need to protect American lives and America’s interests anywhere in the world.”
According to the US intelligence report, “Despite gains in peace and security in the past decade, the [Great Lakes] region endures the chronic pressures of weak governance, ethnic cleavages, and active rebel groups.” However the report does not give details on how the issue of weak governance, ethnicity and rebellion will trigger violent instability in Uganda.

None of that can be denied they are facts. The report doesn't detail how weak government, instability, ethnic cleavages etc. will trigger violent instability in Uganda for the simple reason that it doesn't fucking say that. This is truly atrocious journalism by the Observer

For a while now, northern Uganda, which was the last sanctuary of rebellion, has enjoyed relative peace since the rebel LRA changed its locales and moved to the Central African Republic (CAR). Since 2008, Uganda has deployed troops across Congo, South Sudan, and Central African Republic to pursue Joseph Kony and the Lord’s Resistance Army (LRA), with US assistance, including approximately 100 US military advisors.  In 2012, an assessment of global trends by a US-based intelligence council warned that Uganda was at high risk of becoming a failed state within the next 18 years.

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