CAR: " You've finished playing hangman, you've cast the fateful dice. "

The BBC reports

Central African Republic: UN 'may need 10,000 troops'

                                            Former rebels, mostly Muslims, are being evacuated from military camps

The UN believes at least 10,000 troops will be required in any force sent to end unrest in Central African Republic, the French UN envoy says.

Ambassador Gerard Araud described the situation in CAR as "very, very dire".

The Seleka rebels are being escorted from Bangui by Chadian peacekeepers but there departure will not calm the situation All Africa reports:

" Peter Bouckaert, the emergencies director for Human Rights Watch, said in a post on Twitter that he saw 25 vehicles with 500 heavily armed men driving through central Bangui. According to Bouckaert, Seleka leaders left the camp on Sunday, escorted by Chadian troops with the African Union peacekeeping force."

There is also carnage and looting in Muslim neighbourhoods in the capital as the local flee what have effectively become Christian death squads and property is being looted.

His comment comes after the UN Security Council approved a resolution allowing European troops to use force in CAR.

I am glad that the authorisation comes from the UN Security Council however I am strongly of the opinion that this should be a UN operation. I covered the political aspects of this earlier in the week and I think the use of troops under there respective national armies is problematic. That said it is far better to have the boots on the ground.

About a million people - 20% of the population - have fled their homes during months of religious violence, after rebels seized power last March.

Speaking to reporters, Mr Araud said the African Union force in the country, intending to reach 6,000 troops, "is considered now too low because frankly the situation is very, very dire and the country is huge".

I think the AU force should be just about at 6000. New Times ( Rwanda ) has reported that all the Rwandan troops are now there and they were the last African troops to deploy. All the news to date has been from Bangui there will probably be a bigger humanitarian catastrophe in the regions.  

" Rwanda successfully deployed all its planned 850 peacekeepers to the volatile Central African Republic (CAR), an exercise that began on January 16 and involved 38 airlifts.

The group which jetted out yesterday will immediately join other peacekeepers already in CAR as part of the Rwandan contingent supporting the African Union International Support Mission to CAR (Misca), which seeks to pacify the war-torn country."

Threat of sanctions

The UN Security Council resolution, which was passed unanimously, allows reinforcements to use "all necessary measures" to protect civilians in the country, which has been in near anarchy since its president was overthrown 10 months ago.

In addition to the use of force, the resolution allows for sanctions against the ringleaders of groups blamed for massacres and human rights abuses.

The Seleka rebels started the bloodbath and it would seem that they are being removed to Chad, I would suggest they will not face any punishment the vast majority of the violence at the moment is Christian militias taking revenge the lack of personnel available to the peacekeeping forces suggests that it is unlikely that there will be much in the way of punishment for them either.

Security Council members have been alarmed by the vicious cycle of vengeance between Muslim and Christian militias in the Central African Republic, says the BBC's Nada Tawfik in New York.

There is concern that without a stronger international response - the situation will degenerate into a countrywide religious divide and spiral out of control, she adds.

I think that we have already reached the out of control point. Three weeks ago I blogged about the situation:  

" It is improving insomuch as we have taken a step forward, the two steps backwards have yet to come. Unless the international community can get its shit together very fast then those backwards steps are days if not hours away."

Clearly the international community has failed to get its act together and we are well past two steps backwards.
The EU has agreed to send up to 600 troops to help African and French troops already deployed in the country to prevent further bloodshed.

But the first question is how long will it take for them to deploy ? I suspect they will arrive in March and the second is will 600 make any real difference ? I doubt it. 

France, the former colonial power, has 1,600 troops in CAR, working with some 4,000 from African countries.

I think that with the additional African Union deployments the figure is now about 7600 troops the extra 500-600 isn't going to make a big difference.

On Monday, UN human rights chief Navi Pillay said the situation was getting even worse despite the inauguration of a new leader last week.

The appointment of Catherine Samba-Panza to the Presidency it was hoped would provide a breaking effect on the violence it hasn't. 

She called for more international help, saying Muslim civilians were being targeted.

Many Christian communities set up vigilante groups, accusing the mainly Muslim rebels of attacking them.

The boot is now clearly on the Christian foot it may well be that the surviving Muslim community will be exiled if they are not killed. This was always going to be the outcome and to some degree it is understandable. The Muslim community allowed the Seleka rebels to massacre the Christians now the situation has been reversed the most that the peacekeepers can hope to do is provide safe zones while a solution is arrived at. 
Also on Monday, Christian and Muslims leaders asked UK Prime Minister David Cameron for more assistance.

That isn't going to make much difference. 

" Britain, along with Germany, has offered logistical support but has repeatedly made it clear that it will not send soldiers."

Germany has however agreed to send troops.

CAR is rich in gold and diamonds but years of unrest and poor governance have left most of its 4.6 million people in poverty.

And now facing the very real possibility of a genocide.

CAR: " The panic seeps through bloodstained floors as Grendel stalks the night "

Al Jazeera reports

CAR appoints Bangui mayor as interim leader

Catherine Samba-Panza voted in as EU foreign ministers agree to deploy 500 soldiers to Central African Republic.

                                              Interim President CAR Catherine Samba-Panza

The Central African Republic has appointed the mayor of Bangui to be interim president, as the European Union agreed to send 500 soldiers to help stabilise the country.

Catherine Samba-Panza, one of eight candidates, was elected by members of the National Transitional Council about a week after former rebel leader Michel Djotodia resigned as president under international pressure over his failure to end the bloodshed.

The reaction on the streets of Bangui is interesting from the New York Times: 

“Everything we have been through has been the fault of men,” said Marie-Louise Yakemba, who heads a civil-society organization that brings together people of different faiths, and who cheered loudly when the speaker announced Ms. Samba-Panza’s victory. “We think that with a woman, there is at least a ray of hope,” she said. 

"I am the president of all Central Africans, without exception," said Samba-Panza. "I appeal to my anti-balaka and Seleka children to listen to me and together lay down your weapons."

I am not sure of Samba-Panza religion but I have seen a different translation of the above statement that seems to suggest she is Christian.

" I call on my children, especially the anti-balaka, to put down their arms and stop all the fighting. The same goes for the ex-Seleka - they should not have fear. I don't want to hear any more talk of murders and killings. Starting today, I am the president of all Central Africans, without exclusion."

What ever translation you prefer and for that matter what ever religion she follows she has an uphill battle. The Daily Mail reports

" Shocking photographs have emerged of a cannibal by the name of Mad Dog eating the flesh of a lynched Muslim man for the second time in as many weeks.

In one, 'Mad Dog' - real name Ouandja Magloire - cuts a portion of meat from the body of a murdered Muslim lying burning on a roundabout in the capital of the Central African Republic, with the body of another a few yards away."

A man who goes by the name of Mad Dog cuts off a portion of a burning body to eat, as the bodies of two lynched Muslim men are burned in a street in Bangui, Central African Republic

Last March, rebel groups known as Seleka came together to overthrow President François Bozizé and there have been widespread reports of killings, rape and looting since then. Attacks and counter-attacks between Muslims and Christians have intensified the levels of bloodshed and brutality.

                                       Magloire said that his action was revenge for the murders of his pregnant wife

The mail photos illustrate that.

To qualify, the eight candidates had to show they had no link to the Muslim Seleka rebels which brought Djotodia to power, or the forces behind the mainly Christian "anti-balaka" militia.

Samba-Panza faces the challenge of rebuilding one of Africa's most fractured nations - torn apart by a conflict that a senior UN official warned last week could slip into genocide.

I think a genocide is unlikely now, the hard fact is that soon the country will face a grave food shortage and getting through that ironically might be the turning point that the nation requires.

Enhanced EU role

Her appointment comes as EU foreign ministers agreed on Monday to embark on its biggest military operation in six years.

Ministers meeting in Brussels approved an outline plan to send a battalion-sized force to the violence-torn country but detailed military plans still need to be worked out.

Which is a pathetic response. This emergency requires at least a Brigade if not two. A battalion is anywhere between 300–1300 and a brigade 3000–5000. The Huffington post reports:

" European Union foreign ministers agreed on Monday to send up to 1,000 soldiers to help stabilise the country, a diplomatic source said, the bloc's first major army operation in six years."

I gather the actual figure is 600 troops.

EU officials hope to get UN Security Council authorisation for the mission this week and also that the force will start arriving in the CAR by the end of February. It will be based around the capital Bangui.

So it is not only far too little it will probably arrive far too late. The tragedy is that we have been aware that this situation was on the cards for just about a year. The International Community has stuffed up perhaps not yet on the scale of Rwanda 1994, but that could still come to pass.

It is not yet clear which EU countries will contribute troops. Estonia has promised soldiers, and Lithuania, Slovenia, Finland, Belgium, Poland and Sweden are among countries considering sending troops, diplomats say.

France has already sent 1,600 troops to the war-torn country. The foreign ministers of the 28-nation European Union agreed on a "crisis management concept", for a multinational European force that would be active for six months and tasked with helping stabilise the situation.

And in the interim, President Samba-Panza will have to attempt to quell the murdering without the resources to do the job. 

Large EU countries such as Britain, Germany and Italy have said they will not contribute.

Yes, this blog has argued for an overhaul of the UN Security Council and it is long overdue, Germany for instance would like a permanent seat. This act of humanitarianism by the Germans should be rewarded with a ban from even taking a temporary seat for the next couple of decades. As for the British their permanent seat should be revoked.   

CAR is supposed to hold elections by February 2015, according to the terms of a regionally-brokered peace plans that set up the governing National Transitional Council in March last year.

The National Transitional Council has been a complete failure to date if the world can't get some support on the ground soon I have fears for President Samba-Panza's administration.

Malawi: Give Banda a break

The Telegraph reports

Joyce Banda: I won't cry about Malawi aid freeze over corruption scandal

Exclusive: Joyce Banda, Malawi's president, says she won't be a "cry baby" about Britain and other donors pulling aid over corruption scandal

                                     President Joyce Banda at her office at the Presidential Palace in Lilongwe, Malawi 

Joyce Banda, the embattled president of Malawi who is facing a multi-million pound corruption scandal that has swallowed up to a third of the budget of her impoverished country, has said she will not be a "cry baby" over the decision by Western donors including Britain to freeze aid.

I am a bit pissed off about this. Malawi is trying very hard to build a strong stable democracy that functions for its people unlike many of the regimes in the region.  In October last year I blogged about President Banda taking the highly unusual step for any nation and slashing her own salary.

" Joyce Banda, the Malawian President, has slashed her salary by 30 per cent to share in the "difficult times" suffered by her countrymen since she dramatically devalued the currency.
The pay cut will see Mrs Banda's salary drop from a reported £37,000 a year to £26,000, while her vice president will see a similar reduction."

Mrs Banda, southern Africa's first female head of state, became the West's darling for her reformist agenda after the death of her autocratic predecessor, said she should be given credit for tackling the graft head-on.

In an exclusive interview with The Daily Telegraph this week, she said she understood the need for British politicians and taxpayers to have confidence in her government – and pledged to work hard to ensure trust is rebuilt.

I don't think there is much more she can do. She has made it clear in international forums she is committed to sorting this problem out. 

" The second elected female President in Africa said she is prepared to stake her life and political career in fighting corruption in Malawi where the culture of graft has become endemic and entrenched by a few members of the privileged group at the expense of the larger society.

According to her, the experience of Malawi is replete all over the continent where fighting corruption is not an easy task "because it had become entrenched," but she insisted that "someone has to do it."

"If you want me to be a cry baby I cannot, I am the leader of a country. If you want to give me something and then withdraw it, fine, I must respect your decision. I am not going to cry over it, no," she said.

"I have made an announcement that if you are my daughter, my son, my party official, my cabinet minister, and you find yourself involved in this, you are going to go to jail. I am not going to stand in the way.

She has lived up to that pledge quite a few senior officials both elected and in the civil service have some explaining to do. 

" Banda said about 30 percent of the nation’s resources is being stolen through corruption. The Cashgate scandal has led authorities to arrest 68 people, open 18 court cases, freeze 33 bank accounts and appoint international investigators to conduct a forensic audit, she said.

“The fight against corruption has to continue,” Banda said. “So whoever takes over must continue this fight. If we don’t, Malawi shall remain where it is.”

"Yes, people in the UK will feel they are justified to withhold aid but I also think the UK will look at a new breed of leaders across the continent that have decided to fight it."

What is aid ? From the 1880's through to 1964 Great Britain was the colonial power in Malawi or putting it another way for the best part of 100 years the British nicked the economic output of Malawi. The paltry amounts of aid that are returned today need to be balanced against that theft, certainly the UK has a right to expect its aid money is not purloined by corrupt criminals but that needs to be kept in perspective.  

If the UK requires an honest accounting for where its aid is going I doubt any would object but at some point it should be remembered that Malawi might require the same from Britain with regards to the economic output of the region whilst under British control.

The so-called Cashgate scandal first came to light following the near-fatal shooting of the Malawian budget director, who is thought to have been about to blow the whistle on the scam.

In the police raids that followed, civil servants were discovered with thousands of dollars stashed in their car boots and at their homes.

So far, 68 people including the ministers of finance and justice and a score of senior officials have been arrested for allegedly siphoning off money from government coffers through fraudulent use of procurement systems.

The point is that Malawi discovered these criminals and acted. Punishing Malawi for doing the right thing is just batshit crazy.

Foreign donors including Britain, the EU and Norway, who have pumped millions of pounds into reviving Malawi's stricken economy, providing 40 per cent of its budget, have suspended all direct aid and made no secret of their fury over the systematic looting.

Yes quite a few African nations would have the right to be furious about the systematic looting that occurred while they were under colonial rule.

Mrs Banda insists the corruption began 15 years ago and was ignored by previous presidents but that she has been working behind the scenes for months to put a stop to it.

"There's no one who can come and say they are more traumatised that we are about this," she said.

"We have worked extremely hard to turn our country around – I have not slept for more than six hours for a year and a half. And we thought we had come out of the woods but then we find we are going backwards. There's no way we can be looked upon as those that don't care."

In a continent run by Crocodiles Joyce Banda is someone we should all be helping. If Banda falls who will benefit ?

She claims to have had to step up her security amid death threats, and said one ambassador told her she presided over a "country of thieves".

Mrs Banda said that her neighbours in the region had told her she was a "fool" to raise her hand about the leakage, especially since she is coming up for her first elections since taking office, in May next year.

"It is a high cost for me just doing that, as a politician, six months before elections because for everyone I have arrested, I have lost a whole village of votes," she said.

"I did not realise this – I thought they would look at the issues but no, they say 'but it's our daughter that you have arrested'."

Lets also remember the human rights dimension. This woman actually cares.

Many Malawians believe that Mrs Banda, 63, a former gender activist and factory owner who sold off the presidential jet and slashed her salary after coming to power, was either involved or at least knew about the corruption.

But most of the key donors say they are yet to see any evidence of her complicity and, for the moment, are giving her the benefit of the doubt.

She said she had been "bruised and smeared" by the allegations of involvement, but would not be deterred.

"I am prepared to get bruised because I just feel that this must stop and must stop now. We are finishing 50 years of independence this year, we are going into the next 50 years," she said.

"It is my wish that this rot remains in this millennium. That we go into the next one rejuvenated, clean and ready to prosper."

Her ambition – shared by donors, although they say the timeframe is optimistic - is to stop the leaks from the budget, exploit natural resources including possible oil reserves discovered in Lake Malawi and be free of foreign aid within a decade.

"The donors have not walked away for the first time. They come and go and come and go but we are here, we did not die," she said.

"Sometimes when these things happen, you grow up, you find other ways. We must become creative, we are not going to be dependant forever. Perhaps this is a golden opportunity for us.

"If we do certain things right and if we are as determined as we are as I sit here, in 10 years' time the donors shall be our partners, not our providers, and we shall have weaned ourselves from budget support."

We have a choice in the west and it would seem we are determined to fuck that chance up. Lets not. Lets try and get it right for once.

Zimbabwe: A change in policy ?

Eye Witness News ( Zimbabwe ) reports

Zimbabwean govt stops farm seizures

Cartoon. Radio Netherlands Worldwide 

HARARE - Zimbabwe's government said on Friday it will not seize any more foreign-owned farms after losing multi-million-dollar compensation claims under a treaty aimed at protecting overseas investments.

I think the cartoon says it all.

President Robert Mugabe started giving white-owned farms to landless blacks over a decade ago, a policy that had the unintended result of devastating food output in a country that had been a regional breadbasket.

An estimated 4, 000 farmers were thrown off their land without compensation and, while efforts to get legal redress in Zimbabwe failed, some have successfully sued for compensation in international courts.

Successfully in this context means they got a judgement against the Zimbabwe government as far as I can see. The Harare line appears to be that Great Britain is the liable party. Maybe the British should pay up then invade Zimbabwe and take all of Mugabe and his cronies ill gotten gains as compensation for honouring his debt.  

Lands Minister Herbert Murerwa said that lawsuits brought by foreign investors at the Washington-based  had prompted a change in policy.

Really I doubt it. Policy is something governments have and government is not a a Zimbabwe policy option under Zanu-PF.  

A group of 40 Dutch farmers won a 25 million euro ($32.74 million) claim there against Zimbabwe in 2009 as their farms were covered by the Bilateral Investment Promotion and Protection Agreements (BIPPA).

"We have acquired many BIPPA farms, but we are not going to be taking any future farms," Murerwa told Reuters.

A policy document tabled by Mugabe's ZANU-PF party at its annual conference in December showed that out of a total of 153 farms protected by the treaties, 116 farms had already been seized by the government.

Why anyone would invest in Zimbabwe is beyond me. The Chinese do and Zimbabwe  Zanu-PF buy there instruments of mass oppression from the Chinese so I guess the Chinese have a measure of security not available to other investors.

The government had previously promised not to seize farms protected by BIPPA but continued to evict the farmers, citing Zimbabwe's constitution which allows authorities to take any land suitable for farming.

Justice for Agriculture (JAG), a group representing the dispossessed farmers, was sceptical about the government's policy change.

"It's ok to talk, but where is the action? They previously committed to stop disruptions on the farms but haven't done so. They have already taken more than two-thirds of BIPPA farms," JAG chief executive John Worsley-Worswick told Reuters.

Exactly. Mugabe and his merry men band of thieves have no intention of stopping farm evictions, home invasions, murders, rapes......  

"They just want to create a false perception that they will now respect property rights in order to attract investment. If they were sincere, they would have compensated the Dutch farmers back in 2009, when they undertook to pay within 28 days, but they haven't."

He said that last month a Dutch farmer was shot and injured on a BIPPA-protected farm.