CAR: " You've finished playing hangman, you've cast the fateful dice. "

The BBC reports

Central African Republic: UN 'may need 10,000 troops'

                                            Former rebels, mostly Muslims, are being evacuated from military camps

The UN believes at least 10,000 troops will be required in any force sent to end unrest in Central African Republic, the French UN envoy says.

Ambassador Gerard Araud described the situation in CAR as "very, very dire".

The Seleka rebels are being escorted from Bangui by Chadian peacekeepers but there departure will not calm the situation All Africa reports:

" Peter Bouckaert, the emergencies director for Human Rights Watch, said in a post on Twitter that he saw 25 vehicles with 500 heavily armed men driving through central Bangui. According to Bouckaert, Seleka leaders left the camp on Sunday, escorted by Chadian troops with the African Union peacekeeping force."

There is also carnage and looting in Muslim neighbourhoods in the capital as the local flee what have effectively become Christian death squads and property is being looted.

His comment comes after the UN Security Council approved a resolution allowing European troops to use force in CAR.

I am glad that the authorisation comes from the UN Security Council however I am strongly of the opinion that this should be a UN operation. I covered the political aspects of this earlier in the week and I think the use of troops under there respective national armies is problematic. That said it is far better to have the boots on the ground.

About a million people - 20% of the population - have fled their homes during months of religious violence, after rebels seized power last March.

Speaking to reporters, Mr Araud said the African Union force in the country, intending to reach 6,000 troops, "is considered now too low because frankly the situation is very, very dire and the country is huge".

I think the AU force should be just about at 6000. New Times ( Rwanda ) has reported that all the Rwandan troops are now there and they were the last African troops to deploy. All the news to date has been from Bangui there will probably be a bigger humanitarian catastrophe in the regions.  

" Rwanda successfully deployed all its planned 850 peacekeepers to the volatile Central African Republic (CAR), an exercise that began on January 16 and involved 38 airlifts.

The group which jetted out yesterday will immediately join other peacekeepers already in CAR as part of the Rwandan contingent supporting the African Union International Support Mission to CAR (Misca), which seeks to pacify the war-torn country."

Threat of sanctions

The UN Security Council resolution, which was passed unanimously, allows reinforcements to use "all necessary measures" to protect civilians in the country, which has been in near anarchy since its president was overthrown 10 months ago.

In addition to the use of force, the resolution allows for sanctions against the ringleaders of groups blamed for massacres and human rights abuses.

The Seleka rebels started the bloodbath and it would seem that they are being removed to Chad, I would suggest they will not face any punishment the vast majority of the violence at the moment is Christian militias taking revenge the lack of personnel available to the peacekeeping forces suggests that it is unlikely that there will be much in the way of punishment for them either.

Security Council members have been alarmed by the vicious cycle of vengeance between Muslim and Christian militias in the Central African Republic, says the BBC's Nada Tawfik in New York.

There is concern that without a stronger international response - the situation will degenerate into a countrywide religious divide and spiral out of control, she adds.

I think that we have already reached the out of control point. Three weeks ago I blogged about the situation:  

" It is improving insomuch as we have taken a step forward, the two steps backwards have yet to come. Unless the international community can get its shit together very fast then those backwards steps are days if not hours away."

Clearly the international community has failed to get its act together and we are well past two steps backwards.
The EU has agreed to send up to 600 troops to help African and French troops already deployed in the country to prevent further bloodshed.

But the first question is how long will it take for them to deploy ? I suspect they will arrive in March and the second is will 600 make any real difference ? I doubt it. 

France, the former colonial power, has 1,600 troops in CAR, working with some 4,000 from African countries.

I think that with the additional African Union deployments the figure is now about 7600 troops the extra 500-600 isn't going to make a big difference.

On Monday, UN human rights chief Navi Pillay said the situation was getting even worse despite the inauguration of a new leader last week.

The appointment of Catherine Samba-Panza to the Presidency it was hoped would provide a breaking effect on the violence it hasn't. 

She called for more international help, saying Muslim civilians were being targeted.

Many Christian communities set up vigilante groups, accusing the mainly Muslim rebels of attacking them.

The boot is now clearly on the Christian foot it may well be that the surviving Muslim community will be exiled if they are not killed. This was always going to be the outcome and to some degree it is understandable. The Muslim community allowed the Seleka rebels to massacre the Christians now the situation has been reversed the most that the peacekeepers can hope to do is provide safe zones while a solution is arrived at. 
Also on Monday, Christian and Muslims leaders asked UK Prime Minister David Cameron for more assistance.

That isn't going to make much difference. 

" Britain, along with Germany, has offered logistical support but has repeatedly made it clear that it will not send soldiers."

Germany has however agreed to send troops.

CAR is rich in gold and diamonds but years of unrest and poor governance have left most of its 4.6 million people in poverty.

And now facing the very real possibility of a genocide.

CAR: " The panic seeps through bloodstained floors as Grendel stalks the night "

Al Jazeera reports

CAR appoints Bangui mayor as interim leader

Catherine Samba-Panza voted in as EU foreign ministers agree to deploy 500 soldiers to Central African Republic.

                                              Interim President CAR Catherine Samba-Panza

The Central African Republic has appointed the mayor of Bangui to be interim president, as the European Union agreed to send 500 soldiers to help stabilise the country.

Catherine Samba-Panza, one of eight candidates, was elected by members of the National Transitional Council about a week after former rebel leader Michel Djotodia resigned as president under international pressure over his failure to end the bloodshed.

The reaction on the streets of Bangui is interesting from the New York Times: 

“Everything we have been through has been the fault of men,” said Marie-Louise Yakemba, who heads a civil-society organization that brings together people of different faiths, and who cheered loudly when the speaker announced Ms. Samba-Panza’s victory. “We think that with a woman, there is at least a ray of hope,” she said. 

"I am the president of all Central Africans, without exception," said Samba-Panza. "I appeal to my anti-balaka and Seleka children to listen to me and together lay down your weapons."

I am not sure of Samba-Panza religion but I have seen a different translation of the above statement that seems to suggest she is Christian.

" I call on my children, especially the anti-balaka, to put down their arms and stop all the fighting. The same goes for the ex-Seleka - they should not have fear. I don't want to hear any more talk of murders and killings. Starting today, I am the president of all Central Africans, without exclusion."

What ever translation you prefer and for that matter what ever religion she follows she has an uphill battle. The Daily Mail reports

" Shocking photographs have emerged of a cannibal by the name of Mad Dog eating the flesh of a lynched Muslim man for the second time in as many weeks.

In one, 'Mad Dog' - real name Ouandja Magloire - cuts a portion of meat from the body of a murdered Muslim lying burning on a roundabout in the capital of the Central African Republic, with the body of another a few yards away."

A man who goes by the name of Mad Dog cuts off a portion of a burning body to eat, as the bodies of two lynched Muslim men are burned in a street in Bangui, Central African Republic

Last March, rebel groups known as Seleka came together to overthrow President François Bozizé and there have been widespread reports of killings, rape and looting since then. Attacks and counter-attacks between Muslims and Christians have intensified the levels of bloodshed and brutality.

                                       Magloire said that his action was revenge for the murders of his pregnant wife

The mail photos illustrate that.

To qualify, the eight candidates had to show they had no link to the Muslim Seleka rebels which brought Djotodia to power, or the forces behind the mainly Christian "anti-balaka" militia.

Samba-Panza faces the challenge of rebuilding one of Africa's most fractured nations - torn apart by a conflict that a senior UN official warned last week could slip into genocide.

I think a genocide is unlikely now, the hard fact is that soon the country will face a grave food shortage and getting through that ironically might be the turning point that the nation requires.

Enhanced EU role

Her appointment comes as EU foreign ministers agreed on Monday to embark on its biggest military operation in six years.

Ministers meeting in Brussels approved an outline plan to send a battalion-sized force to the violence-torn country but detailed military plans still need to be worked out.

Which is a pathetic response. This emergency requires at least a Brigade if not two. A battalion is anywhere between 300–1300 and a brigade 3000–5000. The Huffington post reports:

" European Union foreign ministers agreed on Monday to send up to 1,000 soldiers to help stabilise the country, a diplomatic source said, the bloc's first major army operation in six years."

I gather the actual figure is 600 troops.

EU officials hope to get UN Security Council authorisation for the mission this week and also that the force will start arriving in the CAR by the end of February. It will be based around the capital Bangui.

So it is not only far too little it will probably arrive far too late. The tragedy is that we have been aware that this situation was on the cards for just about a year. The International Community has stuffed up perhaps not yet on the scale of Rwanda 1994, but that could still come to pass.

It is not yet clear which EU countries will contribute troops. Estonia has promised soldiers, and Lithuania, Slovenia, Finland, Belgium, Poland and Sweden are among countries considering sending troops, diplomats say.

France has already sent 1,600 troops to the war-torn country. The foreign ministers of the 28-nation European Union agreed on a "crisis management concept", for a multinational European force that would be active for six months and tasked with helping stabilise the situation.

And in the interim, President Samba-Panza will have to attempt to quell the murdering without the resources to do the job. 

Large EU countries such as Britain, Germany and Italy have said they will not contribute.

Yes, this blog has argued for an overhaul of the UN Security Council and it is long overdue, Germany for instance would like a permanent seat. This act of humanitarianism by the Germans should be rewarded with a ban from even taking a temporary seat for the next couple of decades. As for the British their permanent seat should be revoked.   

CAR is supposed to hold elections by February 2015, according to the terms of a regionally-brokered peace plans that set up the governing National Transitional Council in March last year.

The National Transitional Council has been a complete failure to date if the world can't get some support on the ground soon I have fears for President Samba-Panza's administration.