DR Congo: Note to the UN STFU you morons.

UN: defeat forced M23 into talks with Congo

UN chief says Congolese and UN troops beat rebel fighters in clashes, lifting threat of attack against city of Goma.

                                                                     UN peacekeepers have been battling M23 rebels [Reuters]

Congolese and United Nations troops pushed back the M23 rebel group, forcing it back to the negotiating table and removing a threat to the city of Goma, the UN peacekeeping chief has said.

Well that is half true. The bit about pushing back the rebel group.  

Herve Ladsous on Thursday called the military action a "very significant achievement" that inflicted casualties on the M23 and likely led the rebels to resume talks with the government in neighboring Uganda's capital, Kampala.

Actually the rebels were in Kampala waiting for the Congolese Government to return to negotiations. Back in June I blogged.

" The problem is that there seems to be very little to talk about. The Kinshasa attitude seems to be staying in a holding pattern waiting for the increasingly mythical MONUSCO Africa Brigade to show up. M23 on the other hand have been trying to establish a stranglehold over Goma in an apparent effort to make sure the Africa Brigade don't show up.  Charly Kasereka drew our attention to this last week.

He said that his team fully supports UN Secretary General Ban Ki-moon’s recommendation on finding a solution to the crisis in the eastern DRC through political dialogue.

Unconfirmed reports also indicated yesterday that the DRC government delegation would arrive in Kampala on Tuesday ahead of the talks on Wednesday.

I guess time will tell. "

As far as I know the team from Kampala didn't show and M23 have been waiting in Kampala since June. This situation came about due to a political misjudgement by Uganda and Rwanda who thought they would be able to control the deployment of the Africa Brigade that has since morphed into the Intervention Brigade.

But beneath the surface of the summit, held under the umbrella of the 11-member International Conference on the Great Lakes Region (ICGLR), was a concerted effort by the major players, especially Rwanda and Uganda, to shift the focus of the conflict in eastern Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) back to a negotiated deal, even as consensus around an exceptional United Nations military-backed intervention deepens.

Just to ram home the point M23 rebel leader Bertrand Bisiimwa from March 18 2013 

 " They want to make another mistake in Congo. Our people do not want war. If the UN brings drones and soldiers to fight, we shall not accept. War is not a solution, but dialogue for peace. The UN should support the Kampala talks, so that we have a peace agreement soon.

Yawn.

My vision is not for myself, but to bring peace and good governance to the country. I will make sure the talks resume and we reach an agreement. I will tell the people why we are fighting so that we stop existing on paper only. My predecessor did not do much to build institutions but I have already started.

More yawns."

M23 has been desperate to restart talks because it has been obvious to all that they could not win on the ground.

"The M23 group has been pushed back towards the north to such a place that it does not any more pose the direct threat that it had posed for such a long time either on the city of Goma'' or surrounding camps for displaced people and UN positions, the AFP news agency quoted him as saying.

M23, which the United Nations says has received support from neighboring Rwanda, launched an assault on Goma last month, sparking fierce battles with government forces.

Aided by UN peacekeeping troops and the new UN intervention brigade, Congolese troops pounded rebel positions and reclaimed several areas that had been occupied by the M23 until the rebels unexpectedly declared a cease-fire, saying they wanted to resume talks.

In a Security Council meeting, Ladsous said that with the resumption of talks "diplomacy has become again the order of the day."

Well it always was for M23 but it sure as hell isn't from the perspective of the people of Goma and for that matter the rest of the DR Congo. The feedback I have been seeing makes it fairly obvious that the feeling is bugger the talks just kill the M23 bastards. I have no problem with that. Have a read of Alex Engwete's last post. Ladsous really needs to open his eyes. I think Kinshasa is going through the motions in Kampala and I would be happy to bet that nothing substantive will come out of these talks. M23 have two options unconditional surrender or death.

'Licking their wounds'

"M23 has suffered casualties" and withdrew to "lick their wounds," Ladsous told reporters after UN Security Council talks on DR Congo.

UN forces have strengthened their positions around Goma and it was "no surprise" that M23 has returned to peace talks with the government in the Ugandan capital, he added.

Actually the surprise was that Kinshasa showed up. They shouldn't have.

Mary Robinson, UN special envoy for the Great Lakes region, told the Security Council that M23 had offered to disarm if rival anti-Rwandan rebels operating in the region also laid down their arms, according to diplomats in the meeting.

What ? Alex listes their demands that are a bit more comprehensive.  

And  M23 claim they only got left three small demands to the DRC government: 1) Disarm the FDLR; 2) Allow thousands of people claiming to be Congolese refugees in Rwanda to return en masse to the Congo (with thousands of their cows); and, last and not least, 3) Set up a buffer zone between the FARDC and the territory occupied by M23!

A Security Council statement released after Thursday's meeting expressed "concern" at the tensions in eastern DR Congo and said all signatories of the political cooperation accord had to "fulfill their commitments in good faith".

I have no idea why Ladsous came out with this rubbish and even less of an idea why Al Jazeera bothered to publish such drivel.

DR Congo: Why is this a catastrophe ?

DW ( Germany ) Reports

David Zounmenou:"M23 rebel group in DRC weakened by leadership problems"

The UN special envoy to the Great Lakes region, Mary Robinson is visiting the volatile eastern region of the DRC, as fighting between M23 rebels and Congolese troops backed by UN forces continues.

Her one week visit will also take her to neighboring Uganda and Rwanda. The top UN official is responsible for trying to implement a framework agreement, signed in February, to bring about peace in North and South Kivu.

DW: What is it that she possibly can achieve with this visit?

David Zounmenou: The visit is very important given the escalation of violence in the region. The visit will certainly call on various actors to show restraint and put an end to the violence and probably reinvigorate the negotiation process which will help to avoid the kind of catastrophic scenario that we are now foreseeing.

It must be me. I can't see the situation as it is at the moment in Goma, as a catastrophe unless we are looking at it from the perspective of M23. I personally don't give a toss what happens to those murderous bastards. This is exactly the scenario that the UN Security Council envisaged when it authorised the Intervention Brigade ( Africa Brigade ). Voice of America reports: 

GOMA — Residents of Goma, in the eastern Democratic Republic of Congo, are optimistic that the withdrawal of M23 rebels from positions outside the city could bring an end to fighting in the area. The situation is still volatile, as tensions with neighboring Rwanda remain high.

Days after the shelling stopped, the Virunga market in Goma is starting to shuffle back to life.

It’s Sunday - a typically slow day - but many of the shops here are open. Women are folding colorful fabrics, and customers are walking through rows of used blue jeans hanging from wooden posts.

Should a war break out with Rwanda then it might be fair to describe it as a catastrophe. That said Rwanda has to confronted about its ongoing human rights violations in the DR Congo. It is the worlds job to keep the situation under control, we owe the people of Goma that at the very least.  

   

How much influence does she have on the region, will she be able to achieve what she hopes to achieve?

The region has been in the spotlight for a few months now. I think everybody knows what is at stake if nothing is done and that is the reason why the UN has stepped up the game by consolidating the mandate of its peacekeeping mission and by warning the regional actors that have been involved in the conflict to stop providing the support to rebel fighters in the area. So I think she stands a chance to speak to various actors and to call them back to negotiations.

I have no objection to a talk fest but that is all it can be. There is no accommodation possible with M23 they have three choices unconditional surrender, withdrawal to Rwanda or death. Rwanda will not respond to carrots so it must be the stick.  The Intervention Brigade and MONUSCO is part Mary Robinson's stick. Good to see it being used so effectively.  

Shouldn't she have visited the region before the situation escalated?

I think the UN has always been visiting the region. Ban Ki Moon accompanied by the World Bank chief has recently visited Congo to see what was happening on the ground. But there has also been a difficult political process of negotiations unfolding in Kampala. It seems to me the government in Kinshasa didn't give the process the full attention and political commitment it deserves because Kinshasa believes that the M23 organization is at its weakest point for two reasons: Firstly, because the support from Rwanda has dried up probably because of the outcry of the UN group of experts' report and secondly, the leadership issue within the M23 group itself, the sanctions, the departure of Bosco Ntaganda and the dismissal of the political head Bishop Jean Marie Runiga. So all these factors gave Kinshasa the impression that they can step up the game and defeat the group once and for all.

I am skeptical about support from Rwanda having dried up. Jason Stearns at Congo Siasa blogs: 

The most recent fighting appears to have triggered renewed Rwandan support to the rebels, according to UN and diplomatic sources. According to one such source, the M23 launched an attack on FARDC positions in the night of August 22/23, leading UN military observers to believe that the M23 had night-vision equipment. The UN mission has also reported to the Security Council that Rwanda has provided such support. A diplomat told me that his country, a Security Council member, had also confirmed Rwandan support to the M23 in the recent fighting and had spoken with authorities in Kigali about this. According to the same source, most important donors in Kigali were on the same page in this regard.

I have no doubt Kinshasa sees this as an opportunity to rid the Eastern DR Congo of the M23 cancer. I suspect it might be more than just an impression from their perspective. I agree with their thinking.

Where does the current situation leave the Peace, Security and cooperation agreement signed in February 2013? Is it dead or there's still hope that it can be implemented?

I think the agreement still stands and still holds and I think we can still hope for sustainable peace in the Great Lakes region. This is because the agreement signed did give the responsibility to the various actors involved in the conflict. It is up to countries supporting the groups fighting in the DRC to stop doing so and for the Congolese local authorities to undertake political reforms as per the agreement. I think it's time for a political dialogue that will help all countries in the region to avoid a deplorable situation.

Not so sure about that. It will I suspect depend on what happens at the ICGLR meeting this week. I think that Kabila's attendance at the meeting is a mistake and he should have sent if any one a junior official.  

The UN has constantly accused Uganda and Rwanda for supporting the M23, what sort of welcome should she expect from these two countries?

It will be tough and extremely difficult but you also have to understand that Rwanda feels a bit isolated currently and has a limited margin of maneuver. So it will be an opportunity for them to give the other side of the story.

That is hilarious. Rwanda really needs another opportunity to lie.

David Zounmenou is a senior researcher at the Institute for Security Studies in Pretoria, South Africa

DR Congo: The Africa Brigade teething troubles.

Mutaani reports ( Translated from french by Google and cleaned up a bit by me )

DRC: Brigade must act or leave

Civil society in North Kivu gives an ultimatum of one week to the Brigade for UN intervention to attack armed groups in eastern DRC. Otherwise, the Brigade must choose: to act or leave.

Everything stems from a 48-hour ultimatum that the United Nations Mission for the Stabilization of the DR Congo, MONUSCO, has given to holders of arms in the area around Goma and Sake. The ultimatum expired Thursday, August 1, 2013, at 14h GMT.

That same evening, many Congolese expected to see offensive operations against negative forces. The next day, after no concrete action was taken. Tensions increased in the population!

The ultimatum was probably an unwise initial move by the Africa Brigade. Building expectation and then failing to deliver is not a good strategy. 

The climate was favorable for the young members of the local self-defense groups, better known as "Mai-Mai" to stage a demonstration. Dressed in civilian clothes, they easily blend into the population. They have come to rise up against the Brigade, on the morning of Friday, August 2.

The Mai Mai are a bloody pain in the arse. 

Gunmen launched the attack early on Wednesday at an army recruitment center near the North Kivu provincial town before being repelled after more than two hours of fighting, Colonel Olivier Hamuli told Reuters.

"The provisional death toll is 23 Mai Mai, 5 recruits and 3 FARDC soldiers, including a senior officer," Hamuli said. Mai Mai is the generic name given to a multitude of local armed groups that roam eastern Congo.

The roundabout at Birere, one of the hectic crossroads of Goma the drama begins. People attack  the vehicles of the South African contingent of the Africa Brigade  MONUSCO. It does not stop there! A few minutes later, youth stone the vehicles, asking them to get to the front and out of town.

The question that seems to have been missed is who is behind this demonstration ? The conventional wisdom seems to be that it is a spontaneous reaction by the local community but I don't buy that, it is just to glib.

The South African contingent fires bullets into the air to try to disperse the protesters, but in vain. The police and FARDC soldiers manage to disperse the crowd. To achieve this, the vehicles of MONUSCO had to retreat. But the rage of the demonstrators continues.

This just stinks of a set up to discredit the Africa Brigade.

"We have been massacred in the interior of the province! These people were just spectators they are not intervening, reports an upset demonstrator. Instead of helping us end the M23, they ask us to disarm. Who will protect our families? "

I think one week into their deployment it is a little early to make that judgement. 

Another member of the same movement of Mai to Mai who requested anonymity questions the logic of disarming. "We are not fighting government forces nor the Brigade for UN intervention, he said: Why do we disarm? If all M23 rebels lay down their arms to MONUSCO, then we will do so voluntarily. "

So if your not fighting the Africa Brigade or FARDC why do you have weapons ? Mai Mai should be treated as an armed group and if they have weapons they should surrender them or be considered a legitimate target. These guys are are a large part of the problem. 

The civil population in North Kivu is on the same wave length as the people of Goma. Vice-president and spokesman, Master Omar Kavota does not mince words: "The Brigade Intervention ( Africa Brigade ) seems to be asleep standing up. The Brigade continues to waste time and forget that it has a one-year term! "

It invites the Brigade to begin his hunt for active negative forces in eastern Congo. He lists all armed groups who are rebelling Movement March 23,(M23 ) Allied Democratic Forces, ( ADF / NALU) Uganda and Al Shabaab of Somalia and their partners, etc..

I agree but it would be sensible to secure your rear and your supply lines before engaging the armed rebels. Time spent in preparation is not wasted time. That is why soldiers in professional armies train. 

As from Friday, August 2, the people of North Kivu have given an ultimatum of one week to the Brigade for UN intervention to go into action. If necessary  his spokesman threatens to go to the other extreme. Master Omar Kavota: "We call the people to dissociate themselves from this Brigade and conduct large-scale action to push them to act or leave. "

The people of North Kivu ? Who ever this crazy prick is he may well come to regret those words. If they leave then it is back to the status quo if they stay and succeed then he looks like a total dickhead. 

Contacted about this, MONUSCO said they had received no official document of the protesters informing them of ultimatum. The military spokesman, Colonel Felix Prosper Bassa Mutaani  reminded them of the invitation of the Congolese government, and not that of protesters. He still enjoys working with the forces of the DR Congo to alert the international community about the various violations of human rights in North Kivu.

It is not an auspicious start for the Africa Brigade but anyone who expected this to be sorted out in 48 hours is batshit crazy. 

Dr Congo: The Africa Brigade arrives

UN News reports

Congo-Kinshasa: UN Mission Sets Up Security Zone in Eastern DR Congo, Gives Rebels 48 Hour Ultimatum

                                  FIB Tanzanian special forces, part of MONUSCO, in Sake, North Kivu (July 2013).

The United Nations peacekeeping mission in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) announced today that will, for the first time, use its intervention brigade to enforce a security zone around the flashpoint city of Goma in the eastern part of the country, giving rebels 48 hours to disarm.

A statement issued by the mission says that any individuals in the area of North Kivu province that includes Goma and Sake who are not members of national security forces will be given 48 hours from 4pm (Goma time) today to hand in their weapons to a MONUSCO base and join the DDR/RR (disarmament, demobilization, repatriation, Reintegration and Resettlement) process.

It has taken some time but it looks like the Intervention Brigade ( Africa Brigade ) is about to become the game changer in Goma.

"After 4pm on Thursday, 1 August, they will be considered an imminent threat of physical violence to civilians and MONUSCO will take all necessary measures to disarm them, including by the use of force in accordance with its mandate and rules of engagement," the statement says.

That still leaves the Congolese army ( FARDC ) who certainly aren't above looting raping and killing civilians. 

Over one million civilians live in the relatively small area of Goma and Sake, and along the road that connects them where, amongst others the Mugunga camps, temporary home to nearly 70,000 people displaced by the conflict, are situated.
According to MONUSCO, since mid-May, the area has seen repeated attacks by M23 against national troop (FARDC) positions in an apparent attempt to advance on Goma and Sake. "In these attacks, the latest of which started on 14 July, the M23 has used indiscriminate and indirect fire, including by heavy weapons, resulting in civilian casualties, the Mission says, adding that M23 has also targeted UN installations.

Hopefully this is the beginning of the end for M23. Rwanda will not be happy it remains to be seen how they will react but they are now in a difficult position if they take on the Intervention Brigade they are in effect declaring hostilities against several African Nations including South Africa. 

"The security zone will push these indirect fire threats out of range of Goma [and] may be expanded and repeated elsewhere, where it is needed," the statement says.

Good.

The deadline follows the arrival in Goma of MONUSCO Force Commander, Lt. Gen. Carlos Alberto dos Santos Cruz, who announced that the Mission will support the Congolese Armed Forces (FARDC) to establish a security zone around the area of Goma and its northern suburbs.

"I congratulate the FARDC on its actions over the past weeks," the force commander said. "However, Goma and Sake remain very vulnerable and we need to make sure that negative elements do not continue to pose a risk to civilians in this area."

Will the performance of  FARDC will improve to something close to professional ?

Over the past year, the M23, along with other armed groups, has clashed repeatedly with the FARDC in the eastern DRC, with the rebels briefly occupying Goma in November 2012. The fighting, which erupted again in recent days, this time dragging in a group of Ugandan-based rebels, has displaced more than 100,000 people, exacerbating an ongoing humanitarian crisis in the region which includes 2.6 million internally displaced people (IDPs) and 6.4 million in need of food and emergency aid.

"We continue to call on all parties to find a political solution to the current conflict as foreseen in the Peace, Security and Cooperation Framework for the DR Congo and the region," says Moustapha Soumaré, acting Head of MONUSCO in the statement. "In the meantime, we will do everything in our power to protect civilians against the threat posed by any armed groups."

Adopted in February by 11 African leaders and four regional and international institutions (11+4), the document and has since been hailed as a "framework for hope" in the Great Lakes region.

Maybe just maybe there is a light at the end of a very long tunnel.

DR Congo: Does Rwanda intend to invade ?

New Times Rwanda reports

Rwanda: UN brigade aiding FDLR-Congo alliance

The Government has accused the newly-deployed Force Intervention Brigade (FIB), under the UN Stabilisation Mission in the Congo (Monusco), of backing collaboration between DR Congo-based Forces for the Liberation of Rwanda militia (FDLR) and the Congolese army.

The accusations are contained in a letter that Rwanda’s Ambassador to the UN Eugene-Richard Gasana wrote to the US’s Ambassador Rosemary DiCarlo in her role as this month’s president of the UN Security Council.

This runs completely against a report in Congo DRC News last week in which the International Brigade / Africa Brigade /  Force Intervention Brigade were accused of supporting M23 against the FDLR and FARDC that I blogged here. The problem Rwanda faces is that the Africa Brigade ( under the command of  MONUSCO ) has not really formed up yet. 

Jason Stearns at Congo Siasa describes it thus.

For weary observers of the M23-FARDC standoff, the cycle of events is becoming all too predictable. Every week, dozens of rumors are spread via SMS, the web, and word-of-mouth about cross-border infiltrations from Uganda and Rwanda––most of them false, but persistent enough for it appear to be an orchestrated campaign of misinformation. Some MONUSCO officers spend many of their waking hours just hunting down the latest canard, usually to come up with nothing.

Then the fighting: in past weeks, a variety of militia loosely allied to the Congolese government have launched attacks against the M23. Last week, a small bunch of APCLS Mai-Mai somehow made their way to the north of Goma to harass the M23; before that, it was the MPA and FDLR-Soki to the northeast of Rutshuru. And now it is the M23's turn again to strike against the FARDC, attacking Mutaho, a village overlooking Goma from the north.

Alex Engwete offers two possible explanations. 

The first explanation is that little doubt remains in the minds of Rwanda's President Paul Kagame and his military entrepreneurs and plunder operators that they are watching unravel--live!--the endgame of this installment in their serial assaults on the Congo. 

The second explanation is that Rwanda is rehearsing its rationales for an all-out military assault in the Congo.

And this could turn out to be Kagame's biggest mistake in his long career of pillages and thefts in the Congo, as the Rwandan president is now antagonizing Tanzania.

Understandably Alex is pro FARDC whereas I see them as part of the problem at this stage rather than part of a possible solution. Congo DRC News gives us some graphic pictures of why FARDC are probably the least professional army in the world today, including the despicable crime of offering indignities to the dead.

A man accused by the Congolese Army of being a spy of rebels of the M23 movement is tied and taken away on July 16, 2013 in Munigi on the outskirts of Goma in the east of the Democratic Republic of the Congo… PHIL MOORE/AFP/Getty Image

The bodies of two alleged M23 fighters are dumped out of the back of a pickup truck by Congolese Army soldiers in the village of Rusayo on July 16, 2013 during a press visit. According to the army, one of the men was Ugandan and the other Rwandan, but they could not produce the identity cards that they claimed to have seen proving this.PHIL MOORE/AFP/Getty Image

More troubling and in line with Alex's second possible explanation is Jason Stearns prediction that it is possible that a M23 re-occupation of Goma can not be ruled out. 


So will fighting continue? Will the M23 or the FARDC escalate? Anything is possible, but I would imagine the Congolese army would wait for the Intervention Brigade (FIB) to fully deploy, and for the army to carry out its ongoing restructuring before making a move––and that could take at least another month. The M23 would have a greater interest in escalation, perhaps in order to preempt the FIB from deploying or improving the deal on the table. But their problem continues to be a lack of troops. With only 1,500-2,500 troops, they have to protect an area 100km long and some 20-50km wide.

So taking Goma would leave a considerable vacuum along the Rwandan border, and would probably only be possible with backing from the Rwandan army––would this once again be forthcoming?

Is Rwanda is positioning its self politically to invade the Eastern DR Congo again ? Incidentally how will that sit with its current membership of the UN Security Council ?

A case of two letters

The letter, a copy of which this paper has obtained, is a replica of another that the Minister for Foreign Affairs, Louise Mushikiwabo, sent to the UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon last week, according to Gasana’s letter.

Amb. Gasana, also Rwanda’s State minister for cooperation, said in the Tuesday letter that senior FIB commanders have held several meetings with FDLR commanders to discuss cooperation while the force is supposed to hunt down the rebels.

“The Government of Rwanda has credible, reliable and detailed information that various forms of tactical and strategic collaboration with the FDLR were discussed during those meeting,” Gasana said in the letter. “Their actions, implicating senior UN commanders picking sides among the very armed groups whose military activities they are meant to deter, is of serious concern.”

The FDLR militia is largely composed of elements responsible for the 1994 Genocide against the Tutsi in Rwanda, which claimed the lives of a million people.

The newly-formed UN intervention brigade in eastern DR Congo is mandated to dismantle the group, among others.

But Rwanda says it’s concerned that the militia is cooperating with the Congolese army, FARDC, in offensives that the army has been conducting on several armed groups in eastern DR Congo, especially against the M23 rebels who they are fighting near the North Kivu capital of Goma.

Kigali is concerned that reinforcement of the FDLR would allow the group to mount military operations against the Rwandan territory.

Such attacks have in the past compelled Rwanda to send its troops to eastern DR Congo to neutralise the rebels and ensure that Rwanda is safe from their attacks and their plan to continue their extermination agenda against the Tutsi.

Rwanda is very good at making wild allegations and providing no evidence to back them up. There is nothing I have been able to track down supporting any of the Rwandan claims in fact  the opposite would seem to be the case again from Congo DRC News .

“The Secretary-General is deeply concerned about reports of alleged mistreatment of M23 detainees and desecration of corpses of M23 combatants by the Congolese armed forces,” Ban’s press office said.
“MONUSCO has launched the process of reviewing its support to FARDC units suspected of being involved in these incidents,” said Ban’s statement. “The Secretary-General calls on the DRC to bring the perpetrators of these reported acts to justice.”



Weapons delivery

Amb. Gasana said Rwanda has reports of large quantities of weapons and ammunition delivered to FDLR by FARDC officers with the knowledge and support of FIB commanders.

The Rwandan government accused FIB commanders and contingents of observing as FARDC integrates FDLR units and commanders into its commando units near the border with Rwanda.

“The above-mentioned activities and patterns are developments that my government takes seriously, as they constitute a serious threat to the security of my country but also put into question the credibility of MONUSCO and its peacekeeping operations,” Amb. Gasana said.

He added that any hidden agenda driven by political or economic interests would undermine efforts for peace in the region.

"....any hidden agenda driven by political or economic interests...."  Rwanda has got to be taking the piss if it thinks it can get away with that allegation unchallenged. I have argued for some time that M23 despite last weeks limited success has its back against the wall. 

One might well argue that Rwanda scored an own goal in its support of Makenga over Ntaganda and the subsequent hanging out to dry of Ntaganda that has brought about M23's current weakness. Reuters reports. 


 "To halt Ntaganda's activities, Rwandan authorities arrested some of the individuals who were part of this network," the experts said.

"Some Rwandan officers also provided limited material support to Makenga as he sought to defeat Ntaganda," found the report. "While some Rwandan officers had ensured Ntaganda of their assistance, in reality they had decide to support Makenga.

"Rwandan officers also fed disinformation to Ntaganda which precipitated his defeat. Former M23 soldiers who fought alongside Ntaganda reported that soldiers of the (Rwandan Defense Force) special forces that were deployed along the border provided Ntaganda with ammunition at the outset of fighting, which made him believe that he enjoyed RDF support."

As his troops began to run low on ammunition after two weeks of fighting, Ntaganda fled into Rwanda, where he feared Rwandan soldiers deployed on the border would kill him. The U.N. experts said that Makenga had also ordered his troops kill Ntaganda.

It was estimated that about 200 rebels from both sides were killed during the M23 split, the report said. Almost 800 rebels loyal to Ntaganda also fled into Rwanda after their defeat. The experts said Makenga was left with some 1,500 fighters spread across a 270 square mile area (700 sq km).

The FIB, which is made up of troops from South Africa, Tanzania and Malawi, has begun patrolling in eastern DR Congo and the completion of its full deployment is due by August.

One should not forget Rwanda has gone out of its way to piss off Tanzania, the nation leading the Africa Brigade / FIB . 

Monusco refutes Rwanda’s claims

Reacting to the accusations, Monusco spokesperson Madnodje Mounoubai told The New Times by telephone yesterday that the mission has not found any proof of the actions taking place.

“Monusco has not been able to substantiate these accusations,” he said.

Mounoubai instead called on both Rwanda and the DR Congo to stop counter accusations, the latter having continually accused Rwanda of supporting M23 rebels.

“We are actually calling on all parties to exercise restraint and not to escalate the situation. The losers (in the conflict) are actually civilians on the ground,” Mounoubai said, highlighting an already alarming number of internally displaced persons in eastern DR Congo.

On Monday, two mortar bombs fired from an area under the control of FARDC and Monusco landed in villages in Rubavu District, according to Rwandan government.

The Rwandan government described the bombing act as “provocative and deliberate” by FARDC and Monusco since there was no fighting nearby between the Congolese warring factions.

I think Rwanda might well be painting itself into a corner and may well be left with the option of invasion of the Eastern DR Congo and Goma under the guise of M23 or humiliation and back-down something that unfortunately Paul Kagame I suspect is incapable of doing.

DR Congo: No time for half measures.

Military push not sole way to end Congo conflict -UN envoy

                                            Mary Robinson UN secretary general’s special envoy for the Great Lakes 

GOMA, Democratic Republic of Congo - A military solution is not the only way to end decades of conflict in eastern Congo, the newly appointed United Nations special envoy to the region said on Tuesday as the world body prepared to bolster its peacekeeping mission there.

It would seem that the military solution is the one that has found the most favour in Kinshasa and with the UN Security Council. The Irish Times goes as far as to describe it as ;

" UN resolution 2098 provides for an “intervention brigade” within Monusco with the responsibility of “neutralising armed groups”. This aggressive military mandate has led to concern that yet more civilians will suffer in the fall-out of Monusco confrontations with militia in eastern DRC."

Former Irish president Mary Robinson was visiting the region for the first time since being appointed U.N. special envoy charged with helping bring an end to the violence, which has left millions dead and the mineral-rich nation in ruins. 

The latest year-long rebellion to sweep the Democratic Republic of Congo's eastern borders has prompted the U.N. to add a 3,000-strong "intervention force" to its existing 17,000-strong mission. 

The so-called Force Intervention Brigade (FIB) is the first of its kind from the traditional peacekeeping force and is charged with neutralising rebel militias, but Robinson said it must not detract from the search for a sustainable political solution.

Jason Sterns at Congo Siasa actually points to the considerable political risks deploying the Intervention Brigade entails.

"The brigade is expected to deploy by June or July (around the same time as drones), with its base in Sake and operations probably beginning in the following months. But, despite the aggressive media campaign waged by M23 against the brigade, its political importance is likely to be as hefty as its (few) helicopter gunships and armed personnel carriers. As one Rwandan official put it to me: "Imagine the M23 kill ten South Africans. It doesn't matter whether we support the M23 or not, Zuma will blame us."The brigade forms a sort of political firewall––if the M23 puts it to shame, it will draw in some of the most powerful countries in the region into the conflict."

I  think that the African Intervention Brigade will have to provide an effective military solution to the rebel issues for any political solution to be implemented. MONUSCO to date has cost billions of dollars and achieved nothing of note. The last thing the people of the Eastern DR Congo need is individual nation states seeking to establish a hegemony over the region. They have been there many times before, in modern history we can start with Belgium and end with Rwanda and remembering the millions of Congolese lives lost. 

"There's no doubt these armed groups have to be dealt with, but I think it's important that this does not become a focus on a military solution, (and) that we're implementing the political steps that have been committed to," she said during a visit to the city of Goma, the epicentre for the recent fighting. 

Robinson was appointed to support the implementation of a peace framework signed by 11 heads of state in Addis Ababa earlier this year.

I hope the Intervention Brigade is armed to the teeth and very capable. 

DR Congo: M23 have a few more problems now.

The Daily Maverick ( South Africa ) reports,

SA fighting M23: What’s at stake?

The Congolese rebel group has continued to warn of dire consequences if they are attacked by the newly-assembled United Nations intervention brigade. And if South African troops are indeed part of such an attack on M23, there could be hell to pay. By KHADIJA PATEL.

On Sunday, Congolese rebel group M23 announced that the South African National Defence Force (SANDF) had set up base in Muningi, some 5km from the eastern city of Goma and a trifling 100m from M23 positions. “Any time something bad can happen,” the group warned on Twitter, adding that they would re-invade Goma within two hours of a SANDF attack on their positions.

I wouldn't imagine the South African forces will do anything further at this point. The reality is that until the African Brigade forms up we are in the typical military posture of hurry up and wait.

While some point out that when the group took Goma last November, purportedly with the full backing of Rwanda and Uganda, they never paused to tweet threats. They just went along and occupied Goma without too much bother, issuing a warning to the Joseph Kabila’s government in Kinshasa and the rest of the region as well.

The reality was I contend very different. They occupied Goma without to much bother because nobody could actually be bothered stopping them. One would hope the situation has changed on the ground at Goma at the moment.

Ten days after occupying the city, M23 withdrew from Goma on December 1 2012, with little explanation, leaving behind a trail of destruction and woe. The Congolese Red Cross counted at least 90 bodies in and around Goma and the Rutshuru territory, to the city’s north, after the withdrawal was completed.

I would be prepared to bet many of the bodies discovered were nothing to do with M23. The really badly behaved force was the FARDC the Congolese Army.

After the rebels left, the Congolese government asserted a semblance of control over the city, while M23 lurk on the outskirts, mulling their options in negotiations with the Congolese government in Uganda.

A few months later, M23's Bosco Ntganda is at The Hague to face charges of crimes against humanity. But no one has claimed responsibility, or offered compensation to those caught in middle of the conflict. The focus of diplomatic efforts has been on stamping out the threat of M23 on Joseph Kabila’s government.

I think that in a situation like this it is logical to go after those with the deepest pockets and that means that the compensation owed to those murdered, robbed and raped should be addressed to the UN. This whole bloody debacle can be laid at the feet of the to date worse than worse than useless MONUSCO.   If they won't do the job they might as well go home.

The talks have been fraught with breakdowns as both sides refuse to compromise their positions.

The reality is M23 have already lost they are just refusing to face that fact yet.

On 28 March, the UN Security Council approved Resolution 2098, which authorises three infantry battalions, one artillery and one Special Forces Company to be headquartered in Goma. The resolution “strongly condemns the continued presence of the M23 in the immediate vicinity of Goma and its attempts to establish an illegitimate parallel administration in North Kivu.”
but it’s not M23 alone that the UN resolution has named.

The text of the resolution targets the “increased activity of other armed groups, including the Alliance des Patriotes pour un Congo libre et souverain (APCLS) and the Allied Democratic Forces (ADF) in North Kivu, the Mayi-Mayi Gedeon and the Mayi-Mayi Kata-katanga in Katanga Province, the Lord’s Resistance Army (LRA) in Orientale Province”.

The eastern region of the DRC has long been the site of an unseemly tug-of-war between the state and rebel militia.

The situation for the UN is really quite simple. You have beefed up forces a new workable mandate. Get it right or get out. 

So while M23 is the most immediate target of the UN intervention brigade, combat in the region may prove to be more complex than a simple fight for territory between the UN and one group of rebels. There are at least a dozen rebel groups operating in the eastern DRC, all of whom could come into play in some way against the intervention brigade.

Hopefully they will not choose to come into play but if they do so they may find they are in play as targets. 

Indifference met the announcement in January of South Africa’s readiness to contribute troops to the United Nations brigade to combat rebel groups in the DRC. Certainly at the time it appeared to be the newest extension of an ambitious foreign policy with little impact on life at home. For all the championing of African solutions for African problems, the troubles of the rest of the region, never mind the continent, are often too far removed from the South African everyday to inspire more than a passing interest in the latest episode of an old conflict.

The events in CAR last month reminded South Africans that the deployment of South African troops risks the lives of South African troops – and the minister of defence has said that casualties suffered by the SANDF in combat are the collective responsibility of the South African population.

“We as a country fully take responsibility for the death of your children. But we don’t regret sending them,” Mapisa-Nqakula said last month to the bereaved families of soldiers who had died in Bangui. “Painful as it may be, know that your children died fighting. I say this in all sincerity, without any arrogance.”

She stressed then that the losses incurred by the SANDF in CAR would not be a deterrent to future deployments.

And despite warnings of a massacre from M23, the SANDF has not been cowed from its deployment to the DRC.

The situation in CAR was quite different to the current situation in the DR Congo. The South African troops won at a high price the firefight with CAR rebels and it seems likely that the rebels were backed by real troops probably from Chad. M23 is no where near the force it was due to infighting. The South Africans are deployed as part of the African Brigade not as primarily South African troops attempting to impose a South African hegemony. 

“The SANDF and its members are not going to be scared by anything. We vowed and took oaths to serve the country even if there’s a need for us to die. Whatever task the government gives us will be taken with high morale and high spirits,” SANDF spokesperson Xolani Mabanga said last week.

As with CAR, however, South Africa’s willingness to offer military help in the DRC has prompted speculation of a more dubious intent behind the SANDF’s latest mission in the eastern Congo. 

Suspicion surrounding South Africa’s involvement in the DRC is not new. It is, after all, through its peace-brokering efforts that South Africa was able to brand itself as an African peacemaker. South Africa invested heavily in the Inter-Congolese Dialogue held at Sun City in February 2002, but this mediation effort was suspected to have been coloured by self-interest. South Africa has contributed peacekeeping troops, committed to the development of the DRC’s public sector, and invested millions of rands and years of diplomacy to bring stability to the DRC - the R126 million spent to assist the DRC with its election in 2011 is one such example.

This particular interest in the DRC has long been suspected of being a guise for securing lucrative opportunities for South African businesses.

In 2010, President Kabila set off a legal dispute between a leading European oil firm and Khulubuse Zuma, after he awarded two exploration blocks to companies owned by President Jacob Zuma’s nephew. Kabila’s government had previously allocated exploration rights to Irish oil major Tullow and South Africa's Divine Inspiration Group.

While Khulubuse has shrugged off suggestions Zuma was personally involved in the “smash and grab”, South African diplomacy in the DRC does certainly aid such deals.

A core tenet of South Africa’s foreign policy is to open African markets for South African goods and services. In the DRC, South Africa has fared very well in this regard. Two-way trade between South Africa and the DRC was R7.8 billion in 2011, up from R6.2 billion in 2010 and R4.8 billion in 2009.

Those numbers, however, may stand for nothing in the coming months when South African troops face off rebels in the eastern Congo. And a South African-steered attack on the rebels may be especially costly.

The next few weeks will be interesting to say the least.