CAR: " And so as I patrol in the valley of the shadow of the tricolour "

DW ( Germany ) reports  

Chad's role behind the scenes in the Central African Republic

A bloody conflict is threatening to tear the Central African Republic (CAR) apart. The African Union has sent troops, the EU wants to follow suit - but it is Chad which is pulling the strings militarily and politically.

The Central African Republic's northern neighbor, Chad, is a military heavyweight in the region. Under the leadership of President Idriss Deby Itno, it is a driving force behind key decisions in the current crisis. For example, on the question of the president: CAR's interim president Michel Djotodia was invited to attend a summit of the Economic Community of Central African States (ECCAS) in the Chadian capital N'Djamena in January 2014. He then resigned following pressure put on him by President Deby. This was not the first time Chad had decided on the rise and fall of a Central African president. Deby has always considered CAR to be Chad's backyard, says Helga Dickow, an expert on Central Africa at the Arnold Bergstresser Institute at Freiburg University. In the 1990s, former president Ange-Felix Patasse came to power with Chadian support, she said in an interview with DW. "And Djotodia's predecessor, Bozize, was basically only head of government with Deby's approval."

I think there is far more to it than that. There can be little doubt the Seleka Alliance is a movement under the control of Chad.  

" Numerous interviewees identified the ex-Séléka perpetrators as being Chadian nationals. Witnesses consistently reported that ex- Séléka wearing the armbands of Chadian FOMAC went from house to house searching for anti-Balaka, and shot and killed civilians, including children, women, elderly and disabled civilians.

The mission received multiple testimonies of collusion between some Chadian FOMAC elements and ex-Séléka forces. For example, a credible source reported that, on 5 December, in District 4, at around 3 pm, several witnesses had seen ex-Séléka, jointly with Chadian FOMAC, going door-to-door looking for anti-Balaka and indiscriminately killing at least 11 people, including elderly women, sick persons, and persons with mental disabilities, who had been unable to flee in the morning."  

The better question is why did Chad topple Bozize ? One also has to question now the role of France in the fall of Bangui to the Seleka. Abandoning the CAR to the depredations of the Seleka bandits with I admit the benefit of hindsight was a bloody silly move, France surely could see the the colonial ambitions of Deby.     


Military might

Chad also has a very strong military presence in CAR. A large part of the 5,500- strong military mission of the African Union (MISCA) was provided by Chad. In December 2013, the intervention force was tasked with bringing stability to the country. In addition to MISCA, there are also some 1,600 French soldiers in the Central African Republic

It would also have to be said that the Chad peacekeepers are doing a bloody awful job, they are clearly not trusted by the other African National armies contributing to the AU forces.  

" Lieutenant-Colonel Pontien Hakizimana, head of the Burundian contingent in MISCA, told AFP his men were disarming former rebels when Chadian troops from MISCA threw a grenade and opened fire on them, prompting some Burundian elements to return fire, wounding three Chadians."

The result of this was supposed to be the removal from the south of the Chad forces to the north of the country, something that although ordered by the command of  MISCA did not happen. 

" Chadian troops are to be pulled out of the Central African Republic's capital, Bangui, after clashes with demonstrators and Burundian soldiers. The Chadians, who are the largest contingent of the African peacekeeping force, Misca, will be redeployed to the north.

Chad is widely believed to be have been behind the Seleka rebellion and having troops from there is not all that smart. The feeling in the Christian community is that the peace keepers from Chad are actually protecting Muslim and particularly Seleka interests.

"The whole Chadian contingent will be sent to secure the north in the next few days," Misca spokesperson Lieutenant Colonel Ndong Toutoune told the AFP news agency."

The alliance between the Chadian and French armies is not new. Chad had already shown itself to be an experienced and important ally during the French intervention in Mali. Since that joint operation, France has now "sided with Deby," says Dickow. "France is now basically supporting a dictator who was previously not socially acceptable. He is now back in the fold of international politics."

I think France has made a major error, I have little doubt that Deby is planning to engage in a bit of thieving of the considerable resources of the CAR, however his Seleka thugs have overplayed his hand and it would seem that the CAR might well be heading towards a homogeneous Christian state. 

However, in the Central African Republic, the population took a skeptical view of the foreign troops. There have been accusations that Chad "supported Seleka rebels and even trained some of them," Dickow told DW.

"The Chadian troops in CAR have reached a size that is uncontrollable,” says Acheikh Ibn-Oumar, a Chadian opposition politician and former ambassador to the United Nations.

"Chadian troops have been crossing the almost one thousand kilometer-long (620 miles) border with CAR, saying they are trying to control it," he told DW.

I am reminded of the Muslim demands when the French troops first arrived for an independent Muslim Nation in the North of the country. 

" On Tuesday the crowds making their way down the deserted city streets were holding signs that said: "We say No to France!" and "Hollande = Liar." Other signs had a hand drawn map of this nation located at the heart of Africa, but showed it split into two, with a Muslim homeland penciled in in the country's north."

Splitting the CAR into separate Christian and Muslim nations is I suspect the objective of the Chadian troops and why they are enabling the Seleka Alliance to carry on the slaughter of the Christian community. "

Brice Kevin Kapayen, a human rights activist and member of the CAR transitional parliament, confirmed that Seleka supporters had entered CAR. "They are armed. The question is: who gave them arms?" The spokesman of the Chadian government has denied any involvement. "But he is not here. He is not in Bangui to see what is happening. We have evidence for everything we are saying," said Kapayen.

Chad is currently a non-permanent member of the UN Security Council. In negotiations, Chad argued against sending a UN peacekeeping mission to the Central African Republic. "They want to find an African solution," says Helga Dickow.

There is an irony that the African solution that Chad seems to be proposing could have with a few subtle alterations have been written in Rwanda. Balkanisation is not a solution for either the DR Congo or the CAR, furthermore it is not an African solution.
The oil factor

Chad has built up its military strength thanks to its oil revenue, says Dickow, and this makes the country appear stable and powerful. However this appearance is deceptive. President Deby is looking for a way to secure the southern borders. He wants to make himself militarily impregnable as he did before in the Darfur conflict when rebels from Sudan threatened his hold on power. "The other crisis region which could be a gathering point for rebels who could rise up against N'Djamena is the border region between CAR and southern Chad," Dickow said.

She sees another reason why this border is of interest for Deby. In southern Chad and in the north of the Central African Republic are oil wells. "Any trouble in this border region would also jeopardize oil production in Chad."

Not if the north was to become a client state or even a southern province of Chad.

CAR: " Why should I feel pity when you kill your own and feel no shame "

Human Rights Watch reports

A lot of this I have covered in previous blogs but the motivation of the Chadian " Peacekeepers "  has long been suspected and really the African Union needs to dismiss the Chad contingent.

Central African Republic: Seleka Fighters Regroup in North 

Bangui:  Armed Seleka commanders and fighters are leaving their bases in Bangui, the capital of the Central African Republic, regrouping in northeastern towns, and engaging in a new wave of horrific attacks against civilians. In some cases,Chadian peacekeeping troops have facilitated the movement of armed Seleka leaders complicit in grave abuses.

In late December Radio France International reported that Chadian troops were to be pulled out of the south of the CAR and sent to secure the north, this obviously didn't happen. At the time I blogged that there was considerable disquiet about the activities of  those troops and the role of Chad in the Seleka rebellion.

" Chadian troops are to be pulled out of the Central African Republic's capital, Bangui, after clashes with demonstrators and Burundian soldiers. The Chadians, who are the largest contingent of the African peacekeeping force, Misca, will be redeployed to the north."

Chad is widely believed to be have been behind the Seleka rebellion and having troops from there is not all that smart. The feeling in the Christian community is that the peace keepers from Chad are actually protecting Muslim and particularly Seleka interests.

"The whole Chadian contingent will be sent to secure the north in the next few days," Misca spokesperson Lieutenant Colonel Ndong Toutoune told the AFP news agency."

Seleka forces in January 2014 tortured and killed civilians in and around the town of Sibut, where the former rebels have been regrouping, Human Rights Watch said. Seleka forces were able to leave bases to which they had been confined by African Union peacekeepers by using bush roads to circumvent checkpoints or by traveling with Chadian troops in heavily armed convoys.

“If the African Union is truly going to protect civilians in the Central African Republic, it needs to rein in the rogue activities of the Chadian peacekeeping troops,” said Peter Bouckaert, emergencies director at Human Rights Watch. “The Chadian forces should not be enabling the Seleka to prey on civilians.”

The issue is not about reigning them in any more, they are part of the problem and are obviously under the orders of Chad President and not the African Union. They need to be removed from the AU MISCA forces.

The predominantly Muslim Seleka include numerous Chadian and Sudanese mercenaries. The African Union peacekeeping force deployed to protect civilians, known as MISCA, which officially became operational in December 2013, also includes Chadian troops. The United Nations Office of the High Commissioner for Human Rights reported in January 2014, following a December 2013 monitoring mission, that it had received “multiple testimonies of collusion” between some Chadian peacekeepers and Seleka forces.

I wouldn't be in the least bit surprised to find that there are active or more likely temporarily " former " members of the Chad army operating as part of the Seleka alliance and if that is the case there should be no surprises that there is a large degree of collaboration between the Chad peacekeepers and the Seleka bandits.

                                                                           21-year-old Abraham Ngieri

" On January 28, a group of eight Seleka fighters detained 21-year-old Abraham Ngieri and two other young men, Michel Ngodji, 31, and Franku Mois, 24, in Sibut and took them to the main Seleka base, at the mayor’s office in Sibut. In front of the gathered Seleka commanders, the fighters tied up the three men, tortured them, and stabbed them with knives over a five-hour period, in an effort to make them reveal the location of anti-balaka bases in the area. When it became clear that the men did not know the location of the bases, the Seleka commander of Sibut, General Rakis, ordered his soldiers to take the three men away and kill them.

Ngieri, who, despite being seriously wounded, survived this attack, told Human Rights Watch:

The zone commander himself gave the order to take us away and kill us. About nine of them took us in a 4x4 blue pickup. We were still tied up, in the arbatasher way [with arms and legs tied behind the back], and they took us to a house a few kilometers from town. Then they stabbed us again, and put the house on fire over our heads. I only managed to escape because the ropes burned and I was able to free myself, but the others burned to death."

The testimony included a report that on December 5 they went together, door-to-door, looking for members of the anti-balaka – Christian militias that have formed to respond to the Seleka, but often have targeted Muslim civilians – and indiscriminately killed at least 11 people. Those killed included elderly women and people who were ill or had mental disabilities, the report found.

It is not my place to defend the actions of the Christian anti-balaka militias by the same token it is very hard to condemn them given the brutality that the Seleka alliance has inflicted on the Christian community. On 9 January 2014 I blogged about this from Voice of America.  

"The Muslims knocked on our door and asked us, 'do you have any guns?," she told me. "We said no, but they took my son out and they shot him. They shot all of our sons, one by one."

" However, aid workers with long experience here believe that power is seeping away from the Seleka, partly because some are from neighbouring Chad and are returning home.

One aid worker spoke of a growing Christian backlash against the Muslim population (a minority here) threatening truly awful bloodshed on a scale not yet seen."

The number of reports of atrocities committed against Christians i have read number in the hundreds, there are over 10 accounts of atrocities in the Human Rights Watch report this blog is about. It is no wonder that the Christian community is taking revenge.

Since December, MISCA, alongside the French force Sangaris, had worked to diminish the violence in the Central African Republic by containing the Seleka and their weapons at bases in Bangui. But in late January, Human Rights Watch documented movement by the Seleka on their own and in the company of Chadian troops, which coincided with a new wave of abuses.

In late December ( I read and blogged the article on Christmas day ) the ABC carried a story about Muslim citizens of the CAR protesting about the French Forces who were then bringing the Seleka gangsters to heel, it was incredible to think even then the fools couldn't see that the French would soon become their only hope of surviving the inevitable Christian backlash that is now occurring.

" On Tuesday the crowds making their way down the deserted city streets were holding signs that said: "We say No to France!" and "Hollande = Liar." Other signs had a hand drawn map of this nation located at the heart of Africa, but showed it split into two, with a Muslim homeland penciled in in the country's north."

Splitting the CAR into separate Christian and Muslim nations is I suspect the objective of the Chadian troops and why they are enabling the Seleka Alliance to carry on the slaughter of the Christian community. 

" It doesn't take a geopolitical genius to draw a line on map and I suspect that that is something that isn't too far from the front of President  Idriss Déby Itno's mind."

Shades of Rwanda and the DR Congo.

The African Union should immediately suspend and investigate, with the support of the United Nations (UN), any Chadian MISCA troops credibly implicated in serious abuses, including assisting Seleka to carry out abuses, Human Rights Watch said.

I think the situation has moved well beyond that. The UN Security Council have screwed up this situation in a manner that only the UN Security Council could. I think that it is time to point out to President  Idriss Déby Itno that invading and fostering invasions of sovereign nations has consequences. It might also be time for the Security Council to wake up and understand that the reports that their experts are filing, reporting on the presence of Arabic speaking bearded men operating in sub Saharan Africa might point to a coordinated attempt export Jihad to region.  

" The ominous convoy rode into Sibut on Wednesday night, the fighters speaking only Arab, and began committing atrocities against civilians, a paramilitary police source said.

Killers " speaking only Arab(ic)" is starting to become a very unwelcome pattern in the Central African region. The ADF Ugandan rebels ( also Muslim ) operating in the neighbouring DR Congo seem to have some Arabic speakers as well. 

Again from the UN Experts report:

The Group determined that during 2013, foreign, Arabic-speaking men have conducted military training courses and operations with ADF; however, the Group was not able to firmly establish the nationalities of these foreigners or their organizational affiliation(s).

I have seen other reports describing them as bearded Arabs. It isn't all that hard to connect the jihadi dots, or rather disconnect them in a final and terminal way."

The UN, regional organizations, and countries assisting MISCA should carefully review their support to ensure it does not benefit Chadian troops that either commit human rights violations or assist the Seleka in the commission of abuses.

“To be effective, peacekeepers should be impartial,” Bouckaert said. “The African Union should rigorously investigate whether Chadian peacekeeping forces are putting civilians at risk by supporting the Seleka.”

I think they are operating under orders that are diametrically opposed to the objectives of the AU Mission.  

Chadian Troops Assist Seleka LeadersOn January 26, at 4:30 p.m., Human Rights Watch researchers witnessed and filmed a heavily armed convoy of Chadian peacekeeping troops about 60 kilometers north of Bangui. The convoy included at least eight pick-up trucks carrying Seleka fighters including some leaders, such as General Mahamat Bahr, the head of military intelligence for the Seleka, whom Human Rights Watch had met the day before he fled.

On January 31, General Bahr contacted Human Rights Watch by phone to say that he had traveled with the Chadian peacekeeping convoy to Bossangoa, a key town in the country’s northwest. The Chadians were to relieve peacekeeping troops from the Republic of Congo who had been stationed in Bossangoa for months. Upon taking over peacekeeping responsibilities in Bossangoa, the Chadian troops allowed another Seleka leader, Colonel Saleh Zabadi, to leave with his troops from their base, where they were ordered to remain, and to go with General Bahr and other Seleka commanders to the northern cities of Sibut, Kaga Bandoro, and Kabo, where Seleka leaders were regrouping with their forces.

There is a major problem here. " The Chadians were to relieve peacekeeping troops from the Republic of Congo who had been stationed in Bossangoa for months."

 This report was made on the 27 December 2013.   

" The Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) information minister says 850 peacekeeping troops from the national army, the FARDC, will be sent next week to neighboring Central African Republic (CAR) to help with efforts to stabilize the security situation there."

In a December 2013 report, “They Came to Kill,” Human Rights Watch documented how Colonel Zabadi, then the Bossangoa deputy commander, ordered the drowning on November 18 of seven farmers who were wrongfully accused of being anti-balaka militiamen. The farmers were bound and thrown into the Ouham River; three survived. Human Rights Watch met with Zabadi and Bahr in December to confront them with the evidence and warn them they could be held criminally responsible for such crimes.

I think that more substantive action than a warning from a non governmental organisation such as Human Rights Watch might be in order. This is a war crime Zabadi and Bahr should be arrested if possible but failing that the ICC should issue warrants for them.

MISCA, which has a mandate to protect civilians, has worked to stabilize the Central African Republic by ordering Seleka fighters to remain on their bases and by trying to prohibit them from circulating with weapons. An official with the peacekeeping force told Human Rights Watch that the Chadians were operating outside of its command and mandate by providing escorts to armed Seleka leaders.

The African Union is doing the best it can, the EU with far greater resources is making a half assed effort and once again the UN is doing sweet bugger all.

CAR: " Wearing bracelets of smoke, naked of understanding "

The BBC reports

Bodies burnt in street in Central African Republic

                                         Aid workers in Bangui rushed to remove the burnt bodies of the Muslim men

A Christian mob in the Central African Republic capital Bangui has killed and burned two Muslims in the street, in the latest sectarian clash.

The gangs told the BBC they would carry on killing Muslims in their area.

It was predictable that a backlash against Muslims would occur I blogged a couple of weeks ago that after the brutality inflicted on the Christian community the only way to stop it was getting peacekeepers on the ground in far greater numbers

" The peacekeepers will soon have the job of protecting the Muslim population from annihilation, the Seleka rebels will decamp to the north with the inevitable collapse of the Djotodia regime. This from the BBC: 

"The Muslims knocked on our door and asked us, 'do you have any guns?," she told me. "We said no, but they took my son out and they shot him. They shot all of our sons, one by one. "

There is a certain irony to this report from late December:  

" Several thousand Muslims backing former Seleka rebels protested in the Central African Republic's capital on Sunday against French soldiers conducting a disarmament operation, AFP journalists in the city witnessed.

The demonstration swelled after some Muslim residents said three ex-Seleka fighters were killed in clashes with French troops. French officials have not confirmed that information."

French and African Union soldiers are struggling to contain sectarian violence that erupted after largely Muslim rebels took over the country.

The Muslim community allowed their coreligionists from the rebel Seleka to brutalise the Christian community without so much as a murmur of protest, when the French troops attempted to put a stop to the Seleka deprivations the Muslim community protested against the French.  If the Muslims had placed a higher  any value on the lives and wellbeing of their Christian neighbours rather than supporting the largely foreign ( Chad & South Sudan ) Seleka rebels I doubt that they would be in this situation now. What goes around comes around.

MPs are due to select a new interim president on Monday, a week after rebel leader Michel Djotodia quit the post.

Mr Djotodia became CAR's first Muslim ruler after his rebel group Seleka overthrew the government in March last year.

The coup helped plunge CAR into sectarian conflict between the majority Christians and the minority Muslims.

It wasn't a coup it was a rebellion, they are very different beasts. The sectarian violence was a direct result of the behaviour of the Seleka rebels, it is very hard not to feel a certain degree of, if not sympathy at least understanding of the Christian community position with regard to the Muslims that remain.   

He quit on 11 January having failed to stop the violence.

Although the clashes seemed to die down immediately after he quit, reports emerged later in the week of more violence.

Radio France International quoted a French General saying the situation was improving again I blogged about it at the time.

"The situation is improving - slowly, but it is improving," the commander of the French troops in the CAR, General Francisco Soriano, said on Thursday.

It is improving insomuch as we have taken a step forward, the two steps backwards have yet to come. Unless the international community can get its shit together very fast then those backwards steps are days if not hours away."

On Friday, aid agencies said at least 22 people were killed in an attack on a convoy evacuating Muslims to neighbouring Cameroon.

In Sunday's attack, a Christian mob killed two Muslims and set their bodies alight at a roundabout in the capital.

They told the BBC's Thomas Fessy that they were avenging the murder of a Christian overnight. It is unclear whether the men had any part or were targeted simply for being Muslim.

Almost certainly it would be a case of being in the wrong place at the wrong time. I doubt that there are many Seleka left in Bangui. The Muslims that remain are probably locals with no place to run. The best option I can see in the short term is setting up secure areas or sanctuaries for the remainder of the Muslim community.

The International Committee of the Red Cross (ICRC) said it had taken 25 very seriously injured people to hospital in Bangui.

In a statement issued from its headquarters in Geneva, it added that fresh inter-communal violence had flared up in north and north-western areas of the country. Red Cross workers had buried 50 bodies discovered over the past 48 hours in the north-west, it said.

The ICRC expressed concern that much of the population, fearing reprisals, was hiding in the bush with no-one to protect them.

There is very little in the way of reporting from the hinterland. I would expect that human toll has been very high.

The UN Security Council approved a French troop deployment to CAR late last year as part of a plan to restore order and hold an election by early 2015.

The temporary parliament finalised a list of eight candidates for interim president on Sunday.

Officials said the candidates met stringent criteria, including stipulations they had not been members of a militant group, and that they had never worked for Mr Djotodia or his Seleka rebel group.

The candidates include Bangui mayor Catherine Samba Panza, and two sons of former presidents, Sylvain Patasse and Desire Kolingba.

It would seem possible that some EU nations might decide to contribute troops alongside the AU / MISCA (Support Mission to the Central African Republic ), DW ( Germany ) reports

" EU foreign ministers were on Monday expected to discuss sending troops to the country to lend support to French and African soldiers who are seeking to restore order.French President Francois Hollande in December asked for a show of solidarity from fellow EU member states, but so far only Estonia has offered to send any troops to the country. Britain, along with Germany, has offered logistical support but has repeatedly made it clear that it will not send soldiers.Poland, the Czech Republic, Belgium and Spain are believed to be the next most likely to contribute troops."

Of course there remains the problem of food. 

" With the coming harvest threatened since farmers have fled their lands or lack seeds due to looting and because people have had to eat them instead of saving them for planting, the UN Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) and WFP have launched a 100-day response plan to boost nutrition and restore agricultural production through seed distribution and storage facilities."

CAR: " You pack your world within a suitcase, hot tears melt this icy palace,"

International Organization for Migration reports

IOM begins airlift of stranded migrants from Central African Republic

An IOM medical team provides medical screening and treatment for migrants fleeing the violence in CAR.

Central African Republic - IOM will tomorrow (11/1/2014) start an airlift to evacuate stranded foreign nationals from the Central African Republic (CAR), following appeals from neighbouring African countries.

The first three IOM charter flights this weekend will repatriate some 800 Chadians from the war torn CAR capital of Bangui to the Chadian capital N’Djamena.

This is essential. They will be killed if they are not evacuated. The Muslim rebels of Seleka have by their brutality brought about the collapse of their rebellion, they have murdered robbed and raped thousands of Christians and it would seem left the ground for the the AU / MISCA (Support Mission to the Central African Republic ) and French peacekeepers. The problem is there are no where near enough of them.

The 800 are part of a group of some 2,500 Chadians sheltering in a transit camp adjacent to Bangui airport, living in terrible conditions at the over-crowded and insanitary site.

Revenge is never rational but the 2500 Chadians have now lost everything except at this stage their lives, if they are not repatriated the Christian community will kill them. This situation could still develop into a religious genocide. Whilst the Seleka rebels were in charge the Muslim population enjoyed immunity that has finished. From the BBC: 

" "The Muslims knocked on our door and asked us, 'do you have any guns?," she told me. "We said no, but they took my son out and they shot him. They shot all of our sons, one by one."

The conflict in the country has displaced some 935,000 people, including some 513,000 – about half of the population – in Bangui alone. Thousands of homes have been damaged or looted. Many displaced families are thought to be seeking shelter in churches and schools, as well as in the airport camp.

IOM has received requests for assistance from Chad, Niger, Mali, Sudan and the Democratic Republic of the Congo to evacuate thousands of their most vulnerable, stranded nationals. The organization is also working with Senegal, Guinea, Burkina Faso, Côte d’Ivoire, Nigeria and Cameroon to provide post arrival re-integration assistance to migrants evacuated by their governments.

It makes a lot of sense to get the all foreign nationals out many of them will be Christians but the CAR is facing a food crisis. The UN reports: 

" 31 December 2013 – United Nations agencies today warned of possible famine and severe malnutrition in the Central African Republic (CAR), calling on donors to provide urgent funding to mitigate the crisis in the impoverished country where a year of conflict has already killed thousands of people and driven 750,000 others from their homes."

“Several concerned governments including Mali, Senegal, Niger and Chad have already organized evacuation flights, but need additional resources to cope with all the migrants wanting to leave the CAR and those arriving home, who are often destitute. IOM is helping in a variety of ways, including providing onward transport for returnees,” says IOM West Africa Director Carmela Godeau.

A total of over 60,000 migrants from neighbouring countries have already asked for assistance from their embassies in the CAR. Nearly 27,000 have already been evacuated by their governments, leaving at least 33,000 in urgent need of help.

Again the problem is personnel there aren't enough troops to protect them or people to organise evacuation. 

“The evacuation of these migrants must be done quickly and in an orderly manner to avoid people trying to leave on their own overland and taking terrible risks, in desperation,” says Godeau.

The country will be infested with armed groups including retreating Seleka I have yet to see any reports from outside the capital but I am expecting some very unpleasant reading.

Many Chadian migrants trying to return home on their own are increasingly finding themselves stranded in dangerous border areas. As of Tuesday, 7,600 Chadians, most of them women and children, had arrived destitute in the border areas of Gore and Sido in southern Chad. Many others may attempt the same route, unless they can be evacuated in an orderly operation with international assistance.

IOM has deployed 15 operations and medical staff in Bangui to organize airlifts of the kind used to repatriate tens of thousands of migrants following the 2011 Libyan crisis.

It doesn't sound like anywhere near enough.

The first three evacuation flights between Bangui and N’Djamena will be funded by IOM’s revolving Migration Emergency Funding Mechanism (MEFM).

But IOM today launched an appeal of USD 17.5 million to evacuate up to 10,000 African migrants from the CAR and to help 50,000 to resettle after they return home. IOM will receive returnees at return ports of entry, assist with onward transportation to final destinations, provide support packages on arrival and help people to cope with reintegration challenges.

The legacy of Seleka, CAR President Djotodia and PM Tiangaye. Djotodia I think should for the sake all concerned now go into exile. 

“Most of these migrants are going back to poor countries where it will be difficult for them to start a new life and earn a living. They will need help once they arrive home. Reintegration assistance is a key part of every evacuation operation,” says Godeau.

The Seleka criminals should be hunted down and brought in front of the ICC if that isn't possible just hunted down will do.

CAR: " We sit and chew on daffodils and struggle to answer "Why? "

The UN reports

Famine and malnutrition stalk strife-torn Central African Republic, UN agencies warn

WFP has provided food assistance to more than 500,000 displaced people across the Central African Republic (CAR). Photo: WFP/Djaounsede Pardon Madjiangar

31 December 2013 – United Nations agencies today warned of possible famine and severe malnutrition in the Central African Republic (CAR), calling on donors to provide urgent funding to mitigate the crisis in the impoverished country where a year of conflict has already killed thousands of people and driven 750,000 others from their homes.

The regime of Michel Djotodia is responsible for this situation and must now acknowledge its failure and leave office. When Djotodia seized office in March this year he had one overriding responsibility, to bring about stability. His attempts to blame the previous regime for the current situation do not stack up in anyway. His Seleka coalition government capabilities are limited to robbery rape and murder.

“We urgently need support from donors so we won’t start running out of food in January,” the UN World Food Programme (WFP) Regional Director for West Africa, Denise Brown, said in Bangui, the capital of CAR. “We are providing food for hungry people wherever we can in CAR. But insecurity is the biggest challenge.”

The donors needed are us. The world and particularly our governments, the West watched on as the government of François Bozizé collapsed, we have continued watch the situation deteriorate and done nothing. Lesley Anne Warner at Lesley on Africa posits some reasons as to why that might have happened, but the real reason as we all know, is that it is Africa and African lives count for little. It would seem that the people of central Africa's lives count for even less.

With the coming harvest threatened since farmers have fled their lands or lack seeds due to looting and because people have had to eat them instead of saving them for planting, the UN Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) and WFP have launched a 100-day response plan to boost nutrition and restore agricultural production through seed distribution and storage facilities.

But so far FAO has only been able to raise $4.3 million of the $61 million needed to help 1.8 million people, out of a total population of 4.6 million.

Unfortunately we don't have a hundred days. Al Jazeera reports:

                                                        Makeshift camp at Bangui airport

" More than 100,000 people displaced by inter-religious violence in Central African Republic are sheltering at a makeshift camp at Bangui airport, a medical charity has said, calling for urgent aid.
....MSF said the airport camp, which stretches for kilometres beside the runway, lacked proper sanitation as well as supplies of food and water as UN agencies have failed to keep pace with the scale of the problem.
"If nothing is done in the next two weeks there is a risk of an epidemic breaking out," said Lindis Hurum, MSF coordinator at the airport camp."

It would be nice to think that we could recover this situation, distribute seed get the planting done and harvest in time to prevent famine. We can't the UN Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) has no role to play in the CAR at the moment its objectives are: 

" Achieving food security for all is at the heart of FAO's efforts – to make sure people have regular access to enough high-quality food to lead active, healthy lives. Our mandate is to improve nutrition, increase agricultural productivity, raise the standard of living in rural populations and contribute to global economic growth."

“The success of the next planting season crucially hinges on the return of farming families to the fields,” FAO said in a news release. “Families who are unable to plant in March will have to wait one whole year before they can hope to harvest again. Failure to help these families will have dramatic consequences on the food security for a quarter of the Central African population.

The FAO can't achieve anything this season, the UN will struggle to put together a peacekeeping mission by March and until it does the security of the population is in the hands of MISCA (Support Mission to the Central African Republic ) and the 1600 troops the French have on the ground. It isn't anywhere near enough to provide much more than some safe zones.

“The low production perceived from the last harvest coupled with a prevailing situation of chronic country-wide malnutrition is setting the stage for a full-scale food and nutrition security crisis should the next planting season fail.”

It has failed. That is now a given and it is time to stop wringing our hands and do something concrete. It is called food aid and the UN World Food Programme (WFP) has the responsibility to get this situation under control.

CAR has been thrown into turmoil since mainly Muslim Séléka rebels launched attacks a year ago and forced President François Bozizé to flee in March. A transitional government has since been entrusted with restoring peace and paving the way for democratic elections, but armed clashes have erupted again and the mainly Christian anti-Balaka movement has taken up arms.

The Transitional Government has failed, given its constituent parts it was always going to. It is now an impediment and should be dismissed as irrelevant. This administration came to power at the barrel of a gun and it should be dismissed, if necessary by the barrels of MISCA  AU troops and the French troops.

Earlier this month Christians and Muslims launched reprisal attacks against each other in and around Bangui, where some 210,000 people were driven from their homes.

"The combination of food shortages and poor sanitary conditions in the camps and deep in the bush, as well as extreme poverty, risk triggering serious malnutrition,” FAO Country Representative Alexis Bontesaid following a visit to Bossangoa, 160 miles north of Bangui, on Sunday.

The combination of western indifference and a willingness to allow a group of criminals to assume power of course was the actual trigger. The Seleka thugs pulled that trigger and the results are plain for all to see. It would in retrospect have been far preferable to tolerate for now the corruption of the Bozize regime and kept him in power.

WFP, which has appealed for $107 million through August 2014 to assist 1.25 million people, has called on all parties to ensure the safe and unhindered access of humanitarian personnel and the timely delivery of aid to people in need wherever they are. “WFP is neutral and delivers assistance solely on the basis of need,” Ms. Brown said.

$107 million is a trivial amount. This is the price of the US Government shutdown.  
" .....the price tag for the first government shutdown in 17 years: about $1.6 billion a week, $300 million a day, or $12.5 million an hour."

I doubt that the WFP will be able to raise that amount via donor nations. As I said above there is only one conclusion possible African lives count for little.   

Despite the volatile security situation, WFP and its partners have assisted more than 237,000 people since 5 December, and from January to April will increase food distributions, provide supplementary feeding to combat malnutrition among children under five, and aid vulnerable groups. From May to August, it will also reach more people in need during the lean season when the last harvest runs out.

The new emergency operation specifies that because of security risks, food distributions will be undertaken by teams moving swiftly from site to site and able to adjust plans. To avoid putting people in need of assistance at risk, a protection analysis will be conducted in each place. In some locations, cooked meals may be provided to help protect women and children.

Earlier this month WFP launched a special operation to deploy more staff, set up local offices, obtain vital security and telecommunications equipment and support establishing cross-border humanitarian flights into CAR at a cost of $5.3 million through June.

It won't be enough but it is a good start.

CAR: " losing on the swings, losing on the roundabouts"

ABC reports

Muslims March in Central African Republic

                      Body of a man draped in a string of protective charms typical of the anti-balaka Christian militiamen

Dozens of Muslims marched down the streets of Bangui on Tuesday to demand the departure of French troops, who were deployed to Central African Republic this month to try to pacify fighting, and have instead been accused of taking sides in the nation's sectarian conflict.

I doubt that the French forces have taken sides yet. The simple truth is that the Muslim Seleka forces are well armed and have shown no restraint in the both their rebellion and since March as part of the governing authorities of CAR when it comes to robbing and killing christians. The Seleka forces have retaliated  to anti-balaka militias with a brutality that is hard to comprehend. 

The marchers, almost all of them young and male, began their demonstration in the Kilometer 5 neighborhood, a mostly Muslim section of the capital which has been the scene of clashes with French forces.

It marks a dangerous turning point for the more than 1,600 French soldiers sent here, who were initially cheered by the population, who ran out to greet the arriving troops, waving tree branches, and holding up pieces of cardboard emblazoned with welcoming messages. That was before French President Francois Hollande bluntly said that the country's Muslim president needed to go, and before French forces were accused of only disarming Muslim fighters and ignoring the Christian militias who have infiltrated the city, organizing attacks on mosques, and on neighborhoods like Kilometer 5, where a majority of Muslims live.

In a country that is 85% christian I think that the dangerous turning point is not so much for the French but for the Seleka rebels. The immediate danger for France is in Europe and one that should have been clear to them. 

" The Europeans' widespread refusal to enter the CAR comes as an embarrassing disappointment for the French government, whose Foreign Minister, Laurent Fabius, told the lower house of the French National Assembly earlier this week: "We will soon have troops on the ground provided by our European colleagues."

France is now left with the unpalatable option of having to shoulder the task in the CAR more or less alone. Hollande's much vaunted new African policy appears to be in tatters.

" France will tell African leaders at a Paris summit on Friday it will no longer play policeman on the continent, even as it prepares to act in a new conflict in Central African Republic after its Mali intervention this year.

...France's stance on the Central African Republic (CAR), a former colony, has shown how far its policy has evolved, initially only sending in troops to protect its nationals and interests.

Paris first refused to agree to appeals by former President Francois Bozize for his "cousins" to help him fight Seleka rebels ousting him earlier this year.

And then, as soon as Bozize was ousted in March, Paris declined an African request to send more troops and drew down its troop numbers, saying it was up to Africans to do the job.

The message was clear. The old ways of doing business - a mix of post-colonial graft and patronage called "Francafrique" and which suited dictators and France alike - were over.

Paris will no longer prop up dictators or back rebellions and will seek U.N. mandates and consult African leaders before intervening.

Perhaps propping up Francois Bozize who undoubtedly fell into the Dictator category would have been the better option in hindsight. 

On Tuesday the crowds making their way down the deserted city streets were holding signs that said: "We say No to France!" and "Hollande = Liar." Other signs had a hand drawn map of this nation located at the heart of Africa, but showed it split into two, with a Muslim homeland penciled in in the country's north.

That is not going to happen. The French haven't conducted their operations in Mali against Muslim separatists only to allow a new Muslim state to emerge in the Central African Republic.

The map shows Muslim nations to the north east and west, there would be little appetite for a new Muslim nation not only in the West but also from African neighbours to further south.

Central African Republic slipped into chaos following a coup in March, which was led by a Muslim rebel group. They overran the capital and installed a Muslim president, while the nation's Christian leader was forced to flee with his family. The country is 85 percent Christian, and when the Muslim rebels began attacking Christian villages, first to steal their belongings and cattle, a sectarian divide emerged. Pillaging turned to killing, and by the time French forces arrived earlier this month, at least 500 people had been killed in communal violence, including mob lynchings, their bodies so numerous community leaders had to dig enormous holes for their mass graves.

Seleka are actually an alliance of Rebel groups. The new interim President Michel Djotodia has very little control it would seem over the factions. In fact he seems to have very little influence full stop. 

" On 3 April 2013, African leaders meeting in Chad declared that they did not recognize Djotodia as President; instead, they proposed the formation of an inclusive transitional council and the holding of new elections in 18 months, rather than three years as envisioned by Djotodia. Speaking on 4 April, Information MinisterChristophe Gazam Betty said that Djotodia had accepted the proposals of the African leaders; however, he suggested that Djotodia could remain in office if he were elected to head the transitional council. Djotodia accordingly signed a decree on 6 April for the formation of a transitional council that would act as a transitional parliament. The council was tasked with electing an interim president to serve during an 18-month transitional period leading to new elections

The transitional council, composed of 105 members, met for the first time on 13 April 2013 and immediately elected Djotodia as interim President; there were no other candidates. A few days later, regional leaders publicly accepted Djotodia's transitional leadership, but, in a symbolic show of disapproval, stated that he would "not be called President of the Republic, but Head of State of the Transition". According to the plans for the transition, Djotodia would not stand as a candidate for President in the election that would conclude the transition."

The French have stepped up patrols and are working to debunk perceptions that they are biased in this war. French Foreign Ministry spokesman Vincent Floreani on Tuesday reacted to accusations that the French force, known as Sangaris, had targeted Muslims.

French troops stop a government minister's car carrying Seleka soldiers, at a checkpoint in Bangui, Central African Republic, Monday, Dec. 23, 2013.

Great photo of the French troops behaving in an impartial manner.

"Since their deployment Dec. 5, the soldiers of the Sangaris operation are operating according to three principles: impartiality, firmness, and controlled use of force," he said. "They are demonstrating this daily, in contributing to the disarming of all armed groups, without distinction, and in intervening between groups to avoid violence and abuses."

Which is fine except that it doesn't work very well.

" Human rights groups warn that disarming the armed groups, one of the French objectives, could backfire unless both Christian and Muslim militias are disarmed at the same time. Amnesty International has documented cases where French forces disarmed Séléka rebels, who were then attacked by militia fighters, and the other way around. Analysts and security experts worry that France doesn’t have a strategy for how to stop the sectarian violence."

A young woman, Edith Benguere, a Christian, ran into the march by accident when she went to the bank to withdraw money. Frightened, she hid and watched, and saw how the demonstrators were acting aggressively against the French forces, positioned along the route.

"Armored personnel carriers had taken positions in different parts of town. But the soldiers would simply backtrack whenever the demonstrators came near them, to avoid conflict," she said. "One of the demonstrators was screaming at the top of his lungs: 'We are ready! We have grenades ... We are ready for whatever comes today, even if we need to die,'" she said.

I suspect that the French will soon have to reach a decision and jump. Should they opt to walk away then French credibility in Africa is over. The UN has its hands full in South Sudan and the African Union force MISCA ( International Support Mission to the Central African Republic ) have a sizable contingent from Muslim countries. The AU's Multinational Force for Central Africa (FOMAC),  will transfer to MISCA, comprises soldiers from Gabon, Chad, Congo-Brazzaville, and Cameroon. That the Seleka coalition have chosen to go against France leaves the French only one real option, they can't walk so they will have to back a new administration that doesn't include Seleka. How long can this regime last ? How ironic, to be asking that question again after 360 days, or should that be degrees.